The New York Yankees' magic number for the AL East crown remains at one after losing to the Baltimore Orioles last night
Even with Cody Poteet filling in for Nestor Cortes, my Orioles vs. Yankees predictions are eyeing the Under with Zach Eflin toeing the rubber for Baltimore.
Read on for my MLB picks for Wednesday, September 25.
Orioles vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Under 8.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I'm seeing about a 10% edge against this total towards the Under.
Zach Eflin gets going on the mound for the Baltimore Orioles, and he's about as well-suited to face off against this New York Yankees lineup as anyone.
For one, Eflin avoids hard contact, ranking in the top 15% of baseball in hard-hit rate, and he's paired this with a low barrel rate to boot. Another essential thing is having a pitcher with an arsenal that isn't too reliant on the fastball.
His pitching arsenal is among the sport's most versatile, with three offerings making up nearly 20% of his stable. Two are breaking balls, which should do an adequate job of keeping the Yankees off balance, as it has in his past two appearances facing them this season when he allowed just one earned run over 13 innings.
Cody Poteet will be the opposing pitcher this evening. There's not much to discuss here because we don't have much data behind his pitching.
However, we do know that through three starts, Poteet is undefeated and has a sub-2.50 ERA. That comes with a caveat of an expected ERA that is much higher, but the reason why he's been successful is that he's been able to limit the barrel rate of opposing teams while inducing a lot of ground balls.
I'm confident enough to back him to do his part this evening against a team that relies on homers and barrels. It also helps that this sudden pitching change from New York out of necessity could keep Baltimore a little off balance as the O's have never faced him.
Aaron Judge pick: TEASER
My best bet
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 strikeouts (-225 at bet365)
My analysis
This could end up being the most juice I've laid all season, but even at this number, there is a value. I projected this to be -277. This is a huge edge, even though it's not a very attractive number.
Eflin has kind of owned Aaron Judge over his career. In 17 plate appearances, he's hit just a .118 batting average with 10 strikeouts. That's a 55% strikeout rate, and if we assume Eflin sees Judge twice in this game, the rough probability of him striking out at least once is 79% or roughly an implied number of -392.
Of course, there are other aspects of this matchup to contextualize things, and Judge has been playing his best baseball of the season, which makes this a bit harder. However, it's tough to look past that type of dominance.
Orioles vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 8.5
Jasson Dominguez Over 0.5 RBI
I'm taking a flier with this non-correlated parlay, which has given us a great multiplier on the payout.
Jasson Dominguez is in an excellent position in the batting order to take advantage of what's around him. Two better off-speed hitters in the Yankees lineup bat directly ahead of him. Jazz Chisholm and Austin Wells own hard-hit rates above the league average against the sinker or curveball. They'll see those pitches a lot against Eflin. I like their chances to get on base at least once as Dominguez cashes them in.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Yankees odds
Orioles vs Yankees live odds
Orioles vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Baltimore +120 | New York -140
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 (-185) | New York -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)
Orioles vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Baltimore has held a slight advantage in this series of late, with a 6-4 advantage in the last 10 meetings.
- The Under has cashed in three of the last four clashes.
- Before last night's loss, the Yankees had been rolling, winning six of 10, making bettors a nice profit.
- New York has taken some money since opening as its moneyline has moved nearly 15 cents.
Orioles vs Yankees trend
The Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 52 of their last 82 games (+19.30 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Yankees.
Orioles vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, YES |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Zach Eflin (10-9, 3.53 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Cody Poteet (9-10, 3.77 ERA) |
Orioles vs Yankees latest injuries
Orioles vs Yankees weather
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