Friday night means baseball is back on Apple TV, this time featuring the Cincinnati Reds playing host to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
With left-hander Bailey Falter set to take the mound for Pittsburgh, my Reds vs. Pirates predictions expect Tyler Stephenson to stay hot against southpaws. Find out more in our free MLB picks for August 23.
Reds vs Pirates prediction
My best bet
Tyler Stephenson Over 1.5 total bases (-105 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
This season has looked much like last year for Pittsburgh Pirates hurler Bailey Falter.
He's been hit hard, flirted with an ERA around 5.00, and appears to be on the wrong side of what I would call the "average starting pitcher line" in baseball. Overall, the Cincinnati Reds should be able to break out from a mini-offensive slump, with one player in particular set for a highly favorable matchup.
Following a day off, Tyler Stephenson should be well-rested and ready to attack. The Reds catcher has eclipsed 1.5 total bases in four of his last five games following a day off, and he remains elite against lefties like Falter.
Entering tonight, Stephenson ranks 26th overall in isolated power against southpaws and has batted .461 against Falter in his career. Falter is also a heavy fastball thrower, as it makes up over half of his pitching arsenal. Stephenson is great against the offering, boasting the third-best hard-hit rate and second-best batting average for Cincy against the heater.
This all amounts to one of the best bets in this game based on my edge, and I'd play it down to -132.
Reds vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Tyler Stephenson 2+ total bases
Reds moneyline
I'll pair our best bet with the Reds moneyline, as there's a sizable pitching mismatch on deck tonight. We've talked enough about Falter, but how about Cincinnati starter Andrew Abbott?
The Reds left-hander is better than Falter in virtually every stat, and he certainly shouldn't be an underdog here. That holds even more true when you look at the Pirates' numbers against left-handed pitchers. They'll enter today near the bottom of the baseball in various hitting metrics against lefties, and I expect those issues to continue.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Reds vs Pirates odds
Reds vs Pirates live odds
Reds vs Pirates opening odds
- Moneyline: Cincinnati -116 | Pittsburgh -102
- Run line: Cincinnati -1.5 (+140) | Pittsburgh +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-110)
Reds vs Pirates moneyline and Over/Under analysis
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After opening as a favorite, Cincinnati is now an underdog at the time of writing, just over 20 cents from the opening number.
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The Pirates have won seven of the last 10 head-to-head matchups, including three straight.
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With a 5-5 record over its last 10 games, Cincy has made bettors a modest 0.22 units during that stretch.
Reds vs Pirates trend
Cincinnati has cashed the run line in 60 of its last 106 games (+7.70 Units / 5% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Pirates.
Reds vs Pirates game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Friday, 8-23-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Andrew Abbott (10-10, 3.72 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Bailey Falter (6-7, 4.02 ERA) |
Reds vs Pirates latest injuries
Reds vs Pirates weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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