The Baltimore Orioles find themselves in a must-win spot in Game 2 of their Wild Card Series against the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday, Oct. 2.
Kansas City has Seth Lugo set to toe the rubber, while Baltimore will counter with Zach Eflin and our Royals vs. Orioles predictions and top MLB picks are expecting the two righties to limit the damage early in this afternoon’s tilt.
Royals vs Orioles prediction
Who will win Royals vs Orioles Game 2?
The Baltimore Orioles have seen big-time moneyline action and the market has moved in their direction since opening. With it being a must-win game for the home team, I respect and agree with the steam because the Kansas City Royals couldn’t score runs down the stretch.
Kansas City finished with a league-worst .257 wOBA while scoring a league-low 2.94 runs per game in September, after all.
My Royals vs Orioles best bet
First five innings Under 4 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Both starters have been solid throughout the 2024 regular season and have postseason pitching experience, so I’m not anticipating either offense putting together a big inning early. Of course, as noted, the Royals are also coming off a dreadful September.
There’s definitely potential for the Baltimore bats to do damage, given the Orioles sport a fifth-ranked .324 wOBA against righties for the season. Still, Royals righty Seth Lugo also has a splash of statistical correction ahead of his .323 BABIP and 64.3% strand rate across his past 10 starts. His 4.15 ERA during the stretch is also above his 3.90 xFIP.
Orioles starter Zach Eflin has been on a more sustainable run since the calendar flipped to July. His 3.23 ERA, 3.84 xFIP, .283 BABIP, and 78.5% strand rate all line up, and he’s held opposing hitters to a manageable 7.5 barrel percentage and 34.6 hard-hit rate during those 13 starts.
For comparison, Lugo has been hit a touch harder with a 10.1 barrel percentage and 36.9 hard-hit rate, but neither ratio is alarmingly high.
Still, this is postseason baseball with everything at stake for both teams, so both pitchers will also have a short leash if there’s any trouble. Baltimore is in a must-win spot, and Kansas City can bring a playoff game back to The Sunflower State for the first time since 2015, after all.
Royals vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Orioles moneyline
First five innings Under 4
Seth Lugo Over 1.5 earned runs allowed
While Lugo’s 10.1 barrel percentage and 36.9 hard-hit rate aren’t confidence-shattering marks, he’s still going against one of the better lineups against right-handed pitchers in baseball.
It’s also desperation time for the Orioles, and Lugo surrendered 2+ earned runs in nine of 14 starts before holding the Braves scoreless across just two frames in his final outing of the season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Royals vs Orioles odds
Royals vs Orioles live odds
Royals vs Orioles opening odds
- Moneyline: Kansas City +120 | Baltimore -140
- Run line: Kansas City +1.5 (-180) | Baltimore -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Royals vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- As noted, there has been a move to the Baltimore side of this moneyline.
- Pinnacle opened with the Orioles as a -139 favorite, and even with buy-back on the Royals, Baltimore is still trading at -148. The opening price for the Orioles at bet365 was -140, and Baltimore is at -160 at the shop as of Wednesday morning.
- The total has also moved to the Under at both books, with bet365 opening the number at 7.5 with a -115/-105 split and the odds moving to +100/-120.
- Pinnacle has made similar adjustments. The 7.5-run total opened at -114/+101 and is trading at -101/-111 as of Wednesday morning.
Royals vs Orioles trend
The Under has hit in seven of Kansas City's last eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Orioles.
Royals vs Orioles Game 2 info
| Location: | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-2-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Royals starting pitcher: | Seth Lugo (16-9, 3.00 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Zach Eflin (5-2, 2.60 ERA) |
Royals vs Orioles latest injuries
Royals vs Orioles weather
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