Who doesn't love Friday night baseball? There are new series and some good/bad pitching conditions as the weather is still sporting some 40-degree settings. With all games starting later, there is little rush today. Have a great weekend!
Here are my best starting pitcher props and MLB picks for April 11.
Bubic o1.5 walks allowed (+120 at bet365)
Yamamoto o5.5 strikeouts (-126 at FanDuel)
Newcomb o2.5 walks allowed (+128 at bet365)
Bradley u17.5 outs (-110 at bet365)
Today's SP best bets
Royals at Guardians
The angle: Kris Bubic is not being priced for the BB pitcher he is.
The move: Kris Bubic Over 1.5 walks allowed (+120 at bet365)
I love betting Over 1.5 walks more than Under, the perspiration is much less. Kris Bubic has been great this year, going 12+ innings over two starts and not allowing a single run. With a pitch count projected in the mid-90s again, he is going to see a lot of batters, and volume is great for this Over prop.
He has three free passes over two starts this year but might be priced on the pitcher he's been over the last three years, which is one that can't stay on the field. Since 2023, he's thrown just 59 innings with 10 walks. Great numbers in terms of BB%, but in his previous full seasons, he had 122 walks over 259 innings, which is likely the better walk rate to project with.
He is also facing the Guardians, who strike out at one of the lowest rates in baseball over the last three seasons and currently have a 10.7% BB%, which is the fifth-highest in baseball.
Cubs vs. Dodgers
The angle: Dave Roberts has let the leash go on Yamamoto.
The move: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 5.5 strikeouts (-126 at FanDuel)
Dodgers starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto has put together 19 punchouts over 16 innings to begin the season. The right-hander has always been on a strict pitch count but it seems like Dave Roberts is ready to let him pitch like an ace, and that's bad news for the Cubs.
Yamamoto has thrown 91 and 97 pitches in back-to-back starts. The last time he pitched at Dodger Stadium, he sat down 10 batters, which was a career high. Even last season with a shorter leash, he managed over a K/inning and hit this Over in 10 of his last 16 starts and in five of his last eight home starts (excluding his first two starts of the season). He owns an 11.4 K/9 at home vs. 9.7 on the road.
He owns a 30.2% K% this year and his swing K% is up two points already this year. He might be one of the best pitchers in baseball and this Over can be done in five frames.
Red Sox vs. White Sox
The angle: It may seem like a wild number, but Sean Newcomb might be the least-accurate pitcher in baseball.
The move: Sean Newcomb Over 2.5 walks allowed (+128 at bet365)
This is new territory for me. I have bet Under 2.5 walks, but never Over. It took one minute to look at Sean Newcomb's numbers to see why this is one of the best +EV plays of the pitcher slate with 3.00 projected.
Newcomb hasn't pitched a lot over the last couple years ,putting up just 93 innings since 2021. However, over those 93 frames, he has managed to give away a whopping 68 free passes. Just over his last three seasons, he has 22 walks over 33 innings.
The worrisome part is his leash as, from above, you can see he has not pitched much. The Red Sox are riding him though, as he threw 94 pitches last game and walked three batters over 4+ innings of work. If he can go five innings vs. an average BB% White Sox lineup, this Over is good to go to +105.
Braves vs. Rays
The angle: Taj Bradley's struggles should create a shorter leash.
The move: Taj Bradley Under 17.5 outs (-110 at bet365)
Taj Bradley is coming off a four-walk game where he threw just 82 pitches and never came out for the sixth. He lasted just 78 pitches in his opener, and although he did go 18 outs, it was vs. the Rockies in Tampa. He is a good pitcher who is hard to hit, but his inefficiencies run up that pitch count, and it's why THE BAT is projecting just 15.4 outs today vs. the Braves.
Despite the record, the Braves are still a good-to-great offense. The setting is great for hitting today as well, with near-80-degree temperatures and double-digit winds blowing out to right field. That wind is not great news for Bradley, who struggles with keeping the ball in the park with 47 home runs allowed across his 253 big-league innings. The Rays don't have any bullpen issues today either.
Not intended for use in MA.
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