October is here, signaling the start of the MLB playoffs. They'll begin with the Houston Astros facing off against the Detroit Tigers in the AL Wild Card Series.
It's an exciting pitching duel, and my Tigers vs. Astros predictions expect two big-time arms to lead us to the Under. Read on for my MLB picks for Tuesday, October 1.
Tigers vs Astros prediction
Who will win Tigers vs Astros Game 1?
The Houston Astros. Given the pitching duel these teams are so evenly matched, but the Astros postseason experience gives them the edge on winning this game more often than not — especially in a matchup so low scoring.
My Tigers vs Astros best bet
Under 6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Since way back in July, only one team in the sport has had better run-prevention numbers than the Detroit Tigers. No player is more of a symbol of that than Tarik Skubal. With a 1.40 ERA over his last three games, the lefty may be the best pitcher in baseball, and I can't go against him here.
However, I'm not about to go against Framber Valdez either. Valdez is one of the best ground ball pitchers in the sport, and he'll have the luxury of going against a team that hits many of them. A total of 6.5 is undoubtedly scary, but both pitchers should be able to shove.
Houston got to Skubal late the last time he faced it in June. The southpaw posted five shutout innings before allowing a four-run sixth inning to end his day sour. I don't chalk that up to anything the Astros were doing, though. It was more a product of Skubal adjusting to still going elite length.
The strength of Skubal's game is creating regular whiffs on swings. While the Astros have one of the lowest whiff rates in the sport, they do chase a ton, and that's also a strength of the Detroit hurler. He enters this game with a chase rate in the Top 15% of baseball.
As mentioned earlier, Valdez is well-suited to be successful because of how often the Tigers have hit ground balls this season. They hit them at the third-highest clip in the sport, and these are the teams Valdez has often abused.
He's allowed just two earned runs over his last 14 innings of work against Detroit, but if you expand beyond the Tigers, you'll see he's had a boatload of success against mostly any team with a high ground ball clip. Valdez had an ERA of nearly one against the teams in the Top 5 of the highest ground ball rate, and he'll feast today.
Tigers vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 6.5
Tarik Skubal 8+ strikeouts
Skubal hit this number against the Astros once this season and finished with seven in another.
Houston hasn't submitted its roster, so we don't know if Yordan Alvarez is playing. If he is, there's a small bump in projected strikeouts, especially considering his chase rate. I'll take the value on this number, which should be closer to +200, given the projected length I see from Skubal.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tigers vs Astros odds
Tigers vs Astros live odds
Tigers vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Detroit +115 | Houston -135
- Run line: Detroit +1.5 (-225) | Houston -1.5 (+185)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-110) | Under 6.5 (-110)
Tigers vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Houston has owned this matchup with a 7-3 record over the last 10 games. Four of those wins have come in the six meetings this season.
- Detroit has won seven of its last ten games, yielding bettors a profit of just over two units.
- The Astros clinched the division early but still managed to roll into the postseason with back-to-back wins over the Cleveland Guardians.
- The Astros have taken some buy since opening — now sitting around -135 — and are set to close at least twenty cents lower.
Tigers vs Astros trend
Two of the last three head-to-head matchups have gone Under the total. Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Astros.
Tigers vs Astros Game 1 info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, 10-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:32 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Tarik Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Framber Valdez (15-7, 2.91 ERA) |
Tigers vs Astros latest injuries
Tigers vs Astros weather
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