Riley Greene and the Detroit Tigers will be at Fenway Park on Friday to take on Rafael Devers and the Boston Red Sox, and we have searched through the MLB odds to find you our best bets for this matchup.
Jack Flaherty tossed a gem in the opening game of this series between the Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox, striking out nine batters in 6 2/3 scoreless innings. With Kenta Maeda toeing the rubber in the second game of this four-game set, we're betting on another Tigers pitcher striking out some Red Sox batters on Friday.
Find out why in my free MLB picks and Tigers vs. Red Sox predictions on Friday, May 31.
Tigers vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Kenta Maeda Over 4.5 strikeouts (+125 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Rewind to the beginning of April, and we saw Kenta Maeda's strikeouts prop trading at 5.5 and even as high as 6.5. However, following a stint on the injured list and an outing where he only recorded one strikeout against Toronto in his return, his prop is now trading at 4.5 at plus money (+125) for Friday. I think this opens the door to an Over bet on the Detroit Tigers' right-hander.
Maeda will make his second start since returning from the 15-day injured list, which cost him a couple of starts due to a viral illness. Maeda had been struggling on the mound for the Tigers prior to landing on the injured list with a 5.80 ERA on the season, but he tossed five shutout innings in his return against the Blue Jays.
While it was a solid outing from Maeda, the one strikeout stands out when we're talking about betting on the Over 4.5. However, these are two very different lineups Maeda will be facing when it comes to a strikeout prop.
Pick your timeframe; it doesn't really matter. When you look at the team stats for strikeout percentage, the Boston Red Sox are consistently in the Top 5 of MLB, while the Blue Jays are in the Bottom 5. For example, over the last 30 days, the Red Sox's lineup has a strikeout percentage of 25.5%, and the Blue Jays' lineup has a strikeout percentage of 17.7%.
So, a total of 4.5 strikeouts for Maeda looks much more achievable against the Red Sox than it did against the Blue Jays. I also like that this will be his second start since coming off the injured list. In his return, he threw 74 pitches, and Maeda's season high is 88 pitches. There's no reason to believe he can't reach that number on Friday, especially since his time on the IL was due to an illness and not an injury that might limit his pitch count.
According to Covers prop projections, Maeda is projected to toss five strikeouts against the Red Sox. This projection allows us to price the Over 4.5 strikeouts at -125, but it is available at DraftKings at +125. This +125 is also a rogue price in the market that you will want to take advantage of, as some sportsbooks are trading the Over at minus money.
Tigers vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Kenta Maeda Over 4.5 strikeouts
Matt Vierling Over 1.5 total bases
Rafael Devers Over 0.5 home runs
I was at the doubleheader on Wednesday between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park, and I don't think anyone is having better at-bats in the Tigers lineup at the moment than Matt Vierling. Over his last five games, Vierling is batting .450 with a wRC+ of 323. He's tearing the cover off the ball right now and doing so with power, which is why I'm targeting the Over on his total bases.
A Rafael Devers home run prop might seem counterproductive to Maeda going Over 4.5 strikeouts, but in reality, a home run doesn't really hurt the pitch count. It's the long, dragged-out at-bats or innings with several baserunners that kill a strikeout prop, not a quick dinger and run around the bases for Devers.
After hitting a home run in six straight games in the middle of May, Devers hasn't hit one in nine games, but this wouldn't be the first time he has taken Maeda deep if he catches a barrel on Friday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tigers vs Red Sox odds
Tigers vs Red Sox live odds
Tigers vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Detroit +1.5 | Boston -1.5
- Moneyline: Detroit +134 | Boston -158
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Tigers vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Red Sox opened as a -155 favorite on the moneyline against the Tigers, and we have seen that line move to make the Red Sox a -170 favorite.
- The total opened at 8.5 at FanDuel at even money, and we have seen the juice on the Under move to -110.
- While FanDuel has adjusted the juice on the Under 8.5, we have seen some sportsbooks drop this total to 8.
- If you're betting on the total for Friday's game, make sure to shop around because we are seeing a mix of 8 and 8.5 in the market.
Tigers vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+8.00 Units / 58% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Red Sox
Tigers vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, 5-31-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Tigers starting pitcher: | Kenta Maeda (2-1, 5.80 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (4-5, 1.90 ERA) |
Tigers vs Red Sox latest injuries
Tigers vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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