There’s a rubber match at Wrigley Field this afternoon, with the Minnesota Twins and Chicago Cubs splitting the first two of their three-game set.
Righty Joe Ryan heads to the mound for Minny, while the North Siders will counter with the struggling Javier Assad. Our top MLB picks and Twins vs. Cubs predictions are calling for another underwhelming start from Assad in front of the Friendly Confines faithful this afternoon.
Twins vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Javier Assad Under 4.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Chicago Cubs righty Javier Assad has only struck out 10 batters through 15 2/3 innings across four starts since returning from a forearm injury. His 5.74 K/9 and 13.5 K% during the four-game sample are far cries from his 8.57 and 22.3% marks through his first 16 starts of the season.
Often, I’d be looking for a statistical correction in Assad's favor, but there isn’t a lot to inspire confidence with the Minnesota Twins sporting the 11th-lowest strikeout percentage (21.2%) against right-handed pitchers. Additionally, Minny sports a sixth-ranked .328 wOBA against righties and is also eighth with a .332 overall mark out of the All-Star break.
Assad will benefit from the wind forecast to be blowing in at Wrigley Field, but his underlying numbers still suggest he’s overachieved this season. His 4.59 xFIP is well above his 3.19 ERA, and he’s posted 6.88 and 4.02 marks across the noted four-game stretch since returning from injury.
I’m also discouraged by his control because Minnesota ranks eighth in walk rate (8.7%) against righties.
The 27-year-old righty has walked more batters than he’s struck out in the past four, and it’s particularly concerning because he’s generating swinging strikes on just 6.5% of his offerings and opposing hitters have a 90.3% contact rate on his pitches inside the strike zone for the year, per FanGraphs. For comparison, that’s the lowest swinging-strike rate and 11th-highest zone-contact percentage among the 104 starting pitchers with at least 90 innings this season.
Twins vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Twins moneyline
Javier Assad Under 4.5 strikeouts
Joe Ryan 6+ strikeouts
Twins starter Joe Ryan has struck out six or more batters in six consecutive starts while posting a 2-2 record with a 4.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. He’s been quite unlucky with his sterling 2.74 xFIP during the stretch a high-end mark. Opposing hitters have an unsustainably high .307 BABIP during the run, and his 60.8 left-on-base percentage is also eyeing positive regression.
The wind blowing in at Wrigley this afternoon paired with the Cubbies sporting the 10th-highest 23.6 K% against righties sets up nicely for Ryan to continue his stolid run, and I expect him to have a far better outing than Assad.
There is also a numbers edge in placing this same-game parlay through bet365. FanDuel has it priced at +283, so there is a positive expected value of 10% attached to the +320 odds.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Cubs odds
Twins vs Cubs live odds
Twins vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 (+120) | Chicago +1.5 (-140)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -140 | Chicago +120
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-115) | Under 7 (-105)
Twins vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- I’m surprised there hasn’t been a larger move to the Minnesota side of this moneyline given the highlighted pitching discrepancy.
- Pinnacle has moved from the opening Twins -132 to -135 as of Wednesday morning, and bet365 remains at the opening -140 after hanging -150 overnight.
- This total is 7.0 at both shops. After early action to the Over at bet365, the book has returned to the opening -115/-105 split. The Over got as steep as -125.
- There has been a minor move to the Under at Pinnacle with a -112/-100 split following the opening -117/+104 odds.
Twins vs Cubs trend
Javier Assad has struck out fewer than five batters in three of his four starts since returning from a forearm injury. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Cubs.
Twins vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North, Marquee |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Joe Ryan (7-7, 3.59 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Javier Assad (5-3, 3.19 ERA) |
Twins vs Cubs latest injuries
Twins vs Cubs weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
