The Minnesota Twins and emerging star Royce Lewis will look to make it two in a row by topping the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.
Chicago sends southpaw Shota Imanaga to the bump, and my Twins vs. Cubs predictions anticipate Lewis having another big night at the dish with the platoon split in his favor.
Here are our free MLB picks for tonight's showdown in Chi-town.
Twins vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Royce Lewis Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+100 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Minnesota Twins third baseman Royce Lewis has been a force this season hitting in the heart of the order, and the right-hander has teed off on southpaws with an elite .446 wOBA and .314 ISO. He’s coming in hot against all arms with respective .416 and .316 marks since July 1, too.
Lewis’ Statcast numbers also jump off the page with his 16.1% barrel rate and 44.1% hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs, both high-end marks.
Additionally, this should prove to be a sneaky opportunity for him because Chicago Cubs starter Shota Imanaga hasn’t been as sharp of late, and he’s overachieved relative to his underlying statistics for the year. The Chicago lefty sports a 5.36 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 40 1/3 innings through his past seven starts, and yet his year-long 3.09 ERA is well below his 3.76 xFIP.
Imanaga has also surrendered a 10.4 barrel percentage and 40.8 hard-hit rate during the seven-start stretch, with both metrics above his 8.0% and 38.2% marks through his first 13 appearances when he spun a tidy 1.89 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
Finally, I value Lewis despite going 0-for-3 at the dish during Monday’s series opener. He had cleared the 1.5 total for this prop in three of his previous four games, going 5-for-14 at the dish, with five runs and eight RBI.
Twins vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Royce Lewis Over 1.5 H+R+RBI
Over 5.5
Shota Imanaga 4+ strikeouts
Before last night's series opener ended in a 3-0 Minny win, these teams were rolling offensively. Minnesota scored 37 runs over its prior four games, and Chicago was good for 34 runs across its previous five. As noted, Imanaga hasn’t been in great form, and this is the lowest total on the board tonight.
Twins starter Pablo Lopez has sputtered this year, but he should have better fortune ahead with his 4.65 ERA well above his 3.23 xFIP. Still, I anticipate the Cubs having their own better offensive fortune.
Returning to Imanaga, there has been steam to the Over on his strikeouts prop, and it moved from an opening 4.5 to 5.5 as of Tuesday morning. While he hasn’t been as sharp of late as highlighted, his strikeout metrics haven’t dipped significantly across the highlighted past seven starts with his 8.93 K/9 and 23.1 K% lagging just behind his respective 9.24 and 25.8% marks to start the year. Imanaga has also recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his past five outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Cubs odds
Twins vs Cubs live odds
Twins vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 (+170) | Chicago +1.5 (-205)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -110 | Chicago -110
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+100) | Under 6.5 (-120)
Twins vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- There hasn’t been notable line movement in this game as of Tuesday morning.
- As noted, the total is the lowest of the day, and there have been multiple adjustments through bet365.
- The shop opened with a 6.5 total before dropping to 5.5 briefly and now trading at 6.0 with a higher vig on the Over.
- Pinnacle has remained at 6.0 since opening with minor adjustments to the prices, with the line movement suggesting there has been action on both the Over and Under.
Twins vs Cubs trend
Royce Lewis has cleared this 1.5 total in three of his past five games with five hits, five runs, and nine RBI during the heater. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Cubs.
Twins vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, MARQ |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Pablo Lopez (10-7, 4.65 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Shota Imanaga (8-2, 3.09 ERA) |
Twins vs Cubs latest injuries
Twins vs Cubs weather
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