The Minnesota Twins visit the Steel City to start a three-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday.
Minny will face rolling righty Mitch Keller, who’s won five consecutive starts for Pittsburgh. The Twins will counter with Joe Ryan, and he’s coming off his worst start of the season with four homers served up to the Houston Astros.
However, my free Twins vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks for their series opener on Friday, June 7 see value in the Minnesota moneyline.
Twins vs Pirates prediction
My best bet
Twins moneyline (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
These two teams aren’t in the same class, and recent results are giving us a better number on the Minnesota Twins than we would have landed earlier this week. The Pittsburgh Pirates just won two of three games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, while the Twins were swept in the Big Apple by the New York Yankees.
I’m happy to pay the short vig to back the better team, especially with Pittsburgh hanging with the league’s worst offenses against right-handed pitchers. The Pirates rank second-last in both wOBA (.283) and wRC+ (81) against righties, and they also have the fifth-highest strikeout rate (24.8%).
Minnesota, on the other hand, is tied for 13th in wOBA (.306) and wRC+ (100) against righties with the 10th-highest walk rate (8.9%).
Additionally, even with Minny starter Joe Ryan coming off his worst outing of the year, he’s still sporting a solid 3.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 3.17 xFIP. I also value the fourth-year righty pitching at least five innings in each of his 12 starts, and his 23.2% strikeout-to-walk rate ranking ninth among qualified starters.
Add the Twins running out the superior bullpen, and Minny snapping its three-game losing skid at PNC Park on Friday is my favorite bet for this matchup.
Twins vs Pirates same-game parlay (SGP)
Twins moneyline
Max Kepler Under 0.5 strikeouts
While Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller has a reverse platoon split with a 27% K-rate against left-handed hitters compared to his 14.9% mark against righties, I’m still eyeing Minny outfielder Max Kepler as a prime candidate to avoid tallying a K in his box score on Friday.
Kepler has a 17.4% K-rate against right-handed hurlers, and his overall strikeout rate is down to 17.1% this year compared to last year’s 21.6% mark. He’s also fanned seven times across his past seven games after tallying just a single strikeout over his six prior outings. The odds also skyrocket despite this remaining just a two-leg same-game parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Pirates odds
Twins vs Pirates live odds
Twins vs Pirates opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 | Pittsburgh +1.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -115 | Pittsburgh +102
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Twins vs Pirates spread and Over/Under analysis
- There has been minimal movement to this moneyline, with bet365 still on the opening Twins -120 price.
- Additionally, Pinnacle has only moved the number from an opening Twins -115 to -120 as of Friday morning.
- The total has seen more movement, with Pinnacle moving off the opening 7.5 number to 8.
- There also isn’t a consensus total. A number of shops continue to hang 7.5 with the Over carrying the higher vig.
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Twins vs Pirates trend
The Twins have hit the moneyline in 26 of their last 42 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Pirates
Twins vs Pirates game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Friday, 6-7-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Joe Ryan (4-4, 3.38 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Mitch Keller (7-3, 3.42 ERA) |
Twins vs Pirates latest injuries
Twins vs Pirates weather
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