After avoiding a sweep last night, the Texas Rangers return home to begin a series against the Minnesota Twins. This is a fun matchup between two pitchers with similar seasons but vastly different data behind them, one of whom is the target of my Twins vs. Rangers predictions.
Bailey Ober has put together a third solid season, and it feels like he's found a place in the majors four years in. Cody Bradford has yet to complete a full season in the majors and the consensus is he... might be good?
I break down the best bet in my MLB picks below.
Twins vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Cody Bradford Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (-105 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Minnesota Twins have been strong against left-handed pitching, which is a problem for Cody Bradford.
On the season, they'll come into this game ranking sixth in isolated power against lefties and inside the Top 10 in hard-hit rate, runs batted in, slugging, and other metrics. For me, that says they can put plenty of pressure on Bradford, and I'm attacking that with my best bet.
As previously mentioned, Bradford's only issue this season has been giving up too high a barrel rate. He's been solid otherwise and a strong pitcher to back. Not only do the Twins see a jump in barrel rate against lefties, but they've also been relatively strong all season.
Minnesota enters this game with the 10th-highest barrel rate in the season. Bradford has faced a handful of teams ranking in the Top 10 of barrel rate this season and surrendered 3+ runs in roughly 75% of the games. I'm not expecting anything differently tonight.
It's also worth mentioning that Bradford has been a solid ground ball pitcher this season and most of his career. He relies on it to get the majority of outs. Outside of the Dodgers, no team has a lower ground ball rate than the Twins in baseball. This is another area that screams problematic for Bradford. The lefty has had a relatively strong season up to this point, but a lot is pointing to him struggling today.
Twins vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Cody Bradford Over 2.5 earned runs allowed
Carlos Santana Over 1.5 total bases
This is a great matchup for Carlos Santana. Not only does he have a Top-25 isolated power rating against left-handed hitters, but he also happens to be one of the best barrel hitters on the Minnesota roster. He's never faced Bradford in his career, but his lack of familiarity with how to approach him should work in our favor.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Rangers odds
Twins vs Rangers live odds
Twins vs Rangers opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 (+135) | Texas +1.5 (-160)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -130 | Texas +105
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Twins vs Rangers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rangers' moneyline price has jumped like a rocket at some books. After opening around +115, we've seen them fall as much as 20 cents at publication.
- The Twins have dominated this series recently. Minnesota has won seven of the last 10 head-to-head matchups but is just 5-5 over its last 10 games overall.
- The Rangers have struggled lately. Texas has gone 3-7 over the last 10 games, losing bettors over three units.
Twins vs Rangers trend
The Rangers have stayed Under the total in 35 of their last 55 games at home (+15.45 units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Rangers.
Twins vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 8-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Bailey Ober (12-5, 3.52 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Cody Bradford (4-0, 3.60 ERA) |
Twins vs Rangers latest injuries
Twins vs Rangers weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
