After taking the first game in a three-game series, the Minnesota Twins will look to lean on their explosive offense against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Minnesota is a -160 moneyline favorite by the MLB odds and star shortstop Carlos Correa should play a role in making that a reality in my Twins vs. White Sox predictions.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks on Wednesday, July 10.
Twins vs White Sox prediction
My best bet
Carlos Correa Over 1.5 total bases (+150 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
When everything is clicking, the Minnesota Twins are swinging for the fences and mashing bombs into the stratosphere. As a team, they sit fifth in MLB in slugging percentage (.434) and home runs (111), and when their lineup is fully healthy, no pitcher wants to see them.
Leading the charge this season — both due to his consistency and health — has been freshly selected All-Star Carlos Correa. Correa is second on the team in home runs (12) and batting average (.303) and is coming off his most successful month of the season.
Correa slashed .388/.441/.582 in June and has been just as splashy in July with three homers in seven games. Over his last 32 games, he’s averaged 2.3 bases per outing and had four against the Chicago White Sox on Monday.
Chicago will send Erick Fedde to the mound for Round 2 against Minnesota, and he’s allowed three homers in his last five starts. Fedde has four pitches in his primary arsenal with his sinker (30.9%) being his go-to.
That doesn’t bode well for him against Correa, who has added a run value of five off of them this year — his second-highest total off any pitch. And going to his second-most frequent pitch — cutter (28.6%) — may yield even worse results for Fedde.
Correa’s got a whopping .303 xBA and .532 xSLG against cutters this season with a 56.3% hard-hit rate. However, it’s breaking balls that he’s been pulverizing with eight of his 12 dingers coming off them and Fedde’s got a sweeper he’s using 20.2% of the time.
The only other pitch the White Sox starter even really uses is his changeup (20.2%), and of all the pitches in his arsenal, that’s the worst one he could go to against Correa as the three-time All-Star is batting .333 against them this season.
Expect another explosive night for Correa.
Twins vs White Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Carlos Correa Over 1.5 total bases
Jose Miranda Over 0.5 hits
Luis Robert Over 0.5 hits
Jose Miranda has been the Twins' breakout hitter in 2024. The 26-year-old leads the team in batting average (.332) and only seems to be getting better. He’s slashing a jaw-dropping .640/.667/.960 in July with 24 total bases in seven games. Miranda also happens to be batting .362 against Fedde’s top pitch.
If the White Sox are going to pull off an upset against the big-swinging Twins, they’ll need Luis Robert to keep crushing baseballs. In seven games in July, he’s slashing .308/.400/.500, plus he has a .705 xSLG against Minnesota starter Bailey Ober’s top pitch, the four-seamer.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs White Sox odds
Twins vs White Sox live odds
Twins vs White Sox opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 (+113) | Chicago +1.5 (-124)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -151 | Chicago +139
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-104) | Under 8 (-109)
Twins vs White Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- Coming off an 8-6 win over the White Sox, the Twins opened as a -150 to -222 moneyline favorite with most books now offering Minnesota in the -160 range.
- The Twins sit second in the AL Central this season at 52-39 while Chicago is just 26-67 and fifth in the division.
- The Over/Under opened between 7.5 and 8.5 with most books now closer to 8.5 and offering the Over at plus-money.
- The Twins are 46-43-2 betting the Over and the White Sox aren’t far behind at 43-46-4.
Twins vs White Sox trend
The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 47 of their last 74 games (+15.35 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. White Sox
Twins vs White Sox game info
| Location: | Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-10-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports North, NBC Sports Chicago |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Bailey Ober (8-4, 4.12 ERA) |
| White Sox starting pitcher: | Erick Fedde (6-3, 3.13 ERA) |
Twins vs White Sox latest injuries
Twins vs White Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
