The New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies close a three-game series this afternoon.
Can Philly avoid the sweep? That'll be its task today, and my Yankees vs. Phillies predictions like the home team in the early going. Last night was thrilling, with all you want in a baseball game with multiple home runs, lead changes, and extra innings in an eventual New York win.
What's the best bet here? Read on for my free MLB picks on Wednesday, July 31st.
Yankees vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Phillies first five -0.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
The MLB Trade deadline came and went, and New York Yankees hurler Nestor Cortes stayed put.
The lefty was long suspected of being moved but no deal came to fruition and he will take the mound today. While I think a player being subjected to trade rumors certainly has some negative role in how they perform, it's generally impossible to handicap it. With that said, I'll be fading Cortes based on this matchup and his season performance.
There's a decisive pitching mismatch here, and this is the best way to target it.
Cortes has had issues with his hard-hit and barrel rate all season, ranking in the bottom 15% of the league in both metrics. It hurt him against some of the bigger power bats in baseball, like when he allowed four earned runs in just four innings against the Boston Red Sox in his last start. He's also been horrific on the road, going 0-5 with a 6.18 ERA. The 15% jump in exit velocity against his home games is concerning, and it is something a Phillies team with plenty of power in its lineup can attack.
On the other side will be Cristopher Sanchez, who is perhaps one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. He should feast today.
He does all the things you need to do well against the Yankees. He ranks in the top 10% of baseball in hard-hit rate, which is essential against this lineup. Additionally, Sanchez has created a ton of chase on his pitches. Despite having the lowest chase rate in the league, that number goes up significantly when the Yankees face left-handed pitching. They also see jumps in groundball rate, which is Sanchez's best attribute.
Yankees vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies F5 -0.5
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases
Bryce Harper has been one of the best hitters in baseball against left-handed pitching. He has a Top-25 isolated power rating against them, a Top-10 batting average, and a Top-10 slugging percentage against them. In addition to that, he's well-suited to attack most of Cortes' significant issues. Harper comes in today with the second-best barrel rate and second-best hard-hit rate among Philly players.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Phillies odds
Yankees vs Phillies live odds
Yankees vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-170) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+145)
- Moneyline: New York +110 | Philadelphia -130
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+105) | Under 9.5 (-120)
Yankees vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Over has been a great bet when these two teams have met, going 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
- Yet again, New York was steamed heavily in the market after it opened, going from +128 to around +110 at most books.
- New York will enter this game on a four-game winning streak, its longest such streak in almost two months.
- Philly has had a rough run, dropping eight of its last 10 games while losing nearly six units to bettors during that stretch.
Yankees vs Phillies trend
The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 47 games at home (+17.90 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Phillies
Yankees vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 7-31-2024 |
| First pitch: | 12:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, NBC Sports Philadelphia |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Nestor Cortes (4-9, 4.13 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Cristopher Sanchez (7-6, 3.05 ERA) |
Yankees vs Phillies latest injuries
Yankees vs Phillies weather
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