The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees will open a marquee series this evening. Both have excessively high expectations for the second half of the season and have struggled over the last 10 games.
Perhaps things have turned the corner for at least one team as New York enters off a series win against the Red Sox. Read our Yankees vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks below for more.
Yankees vs Phillies prediction
My best bet
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (-110 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The New York Yankees are fortunate enough to have two of the best fastball hitters in baseball, both now and in recent memory. It's a pretty nice commodity.
That's an especially nice quality when facing an ace like they will tonight in Zach Wheeler. Why? Wheeler will stay on his fastball, which makes up 60% of his pitching arsenal. He's not going to be afraid of the matchup. It's also why we're eyeing Juan Soto with our best bet.
Left-handed hitters have given Wheeler more issues throughout his career, and this season isn't different. He's given up more homers, more RBI, and a higher hard-hit rate against lefties this year while facing fewer batters. That's music to Soto's ears.
Soto, to what I'm sure is no surprise to anyone reading this, ranks in the elite category of virtually any hard-hit rate this season. He'll enter this game with a barrel rate, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate all in the 99th percentile of baseball.
Soto has, yet again, been unreal against the fastball this season. He leads the Yankees in slugging, hard-hit rate, and run value against it. As I said, it's no surprise, given he's one of the better fastball hitters in recent memory.
Coming into this season, he had posted four straight seasons of a hard-hit rate over 60% against the four-seamer. That's simply elite. He's going to get a great deal of them tonight and with an ace like Wheeler likely going deep into games, he may get three opportunities against him. That works in our favor.
Lastly, the added element of adding Jazz Chisholm to this lineup via trade cannot be overstated. Its relation to props in the rest of the lineup is critical. Pitchers were relatively comfortable pitching safely around Aaron Judge and Soto without much in the lineup behind them to threaten.
His addition along with an increasingly healthy team gives us more value on the props of Soto and Judge. I made this number -122, so I'm comfortable playing it at -110.
Yankees vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Jazz Chisholm Over 0.5 RBI
Getting Chisholm at nearly 2/1 to push in a run is just too much to pass up here, and I'm adding it to my best bet for my same-game parlay. It's going to take a bit for the market to adjust what his RBI number should be on a typical game-to-game basis, but I have it closer to the +170 range.
This matchup, in particular, is of interest, given the prerequisites we talked about. Chisholm is slotted fourth in the lineup, directly behind two of the best fastball hitters in the game. You couldn't ask for much more.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Phillies odds
Yankees vs Phillies live odds
Yankees vs Phillies opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-162) | Philadelphia -1.5 (+134)
- Moneyline: New York +130 | Philadelphia -154
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Yankees vs Phillies spread and Over/Under analysis
- As they typically do, bettors have reacted to the Yankees opening up as a sizable underdog and bet them. The New York moneyline dropped at least 10 cents from its opening line of +130 at nearly all books.
- This has been a highly competitive series lately. The two teams have split their last 10 head-to-head meetings, including splitting the previous two.
- Maybe a series win against the rival Red Sox can get things back on track for New York. Before that series, the Yankees lost five of their last seven games.
- The Philly struggles have been worse. They'll enter today with a 3-7 record over the last 10 games, losing bettors nearly four units.
Bet on baseball at FanDuel, Get MLB.TV free!
Opt-in place a bet of $5+ on any MLB market until July 30 — and get a free subscription to MLB.TV until September 1!
FanDuel T&Cs
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, KY, MI, NJ, OH, PA, IL, TN, VA, VT), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).
Yankees vs Phillies trend
The Yankees have covered the run line in 41 of their last 73 games (+14.80 units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Phillies.
Yankees vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Monday, 7-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime Video, NBCS-Philadelphia |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (10-5, 3.10 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (10-4, 2.55 ERA) |
Yankees vs Phillies latest injuries
Yankees vs Phillies weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
