The New York Yankees missed out on back-to-back wins when the bullpen imploded in Tuesday's loss to the Texas Rangers.
We're steering clear of the relief corps with our Yankees vs. Rangers predictions, focusing instead on New York's advantage in the first half.
Let's get into the latest MLB odds and make some MLB picks for Wednesday, September 4.
Yankees vs Rangers prediction
My best bet
Yankees first five innings moneyline (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Texas Rangers may be winning some more games, but they still haven’t consistently produced at the plate and remain a far way off where they were a season ago in a championship season.
Texas remains 24th in wRC+ over the last two weeks and will look to hit a ground-ball arm in New York Yankees righty Marcus Stroman — something it hasn’t done this year. With a poor .226 average against these types, which ranks 26th in the league, Stroman should have a fair chance of replicating the outing he had against this same opponent just a few weeks ago.
In that August 11 outing, Stroman allowed seven baserunners over five innings of one-run ball, earning a victory as he pitched successfully to contact. I expect more of the same considering the Yankees’ infield defense remains one of the best in baseball, ranking seventh in outs above average, and in a bit of good news for Stroman and his control problems, the Rangers have now walked in fewer than 7% of their plate appearances over the last two weeks.
After falling victim to some left-handers in recent games, I expect the Yankees — leading the league in wRC+ to righties — to get right back to work against Nathan Eovaldi. They chased him after just three innings in their only meeting this season, putting eight runners on base and scoring three times. And while the former Yankee has had some recent success, he remains vulnerable on contact with a .250 expected batting average.
Eovaldi has favored ground balls this year, something that should work against him vs. a Yankees team sitting Top 5 against ground-ball pitchers, and I think that’s enough to tilt the matchup in New York’s favor. It’d be smart to avoid this bullpen, though, so we’ll opt for the first half moneyline.
Aaron Judge pick: Catch him on the rebound
My best bet
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
If you’re looking for a good spot to buy back in on a suddenly-cold Aaron Judge, there’s no better spot than this matchup.
Judge may be hitting just .194 over his last eight games, but he has gone 14-for-36 off of Eovaldi in his career for a .398 average and owns an even-better .417 xBA in these meetings. Just four of these hits have gone for extra bases, sure, but his xSLG against Eovaldi stands at an insane .787 and the best part of this is that he’s walked just twice in 38 plate appearances.
The MVP hopeful has hit 33 points better against ground-ballers this year at .329 and has at least gone for extra bases twice in the last eight games despite just eight hits. The price on his total bases is finally drifting, and this is the time to pounce.
Yankees vs Rangers same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees F5 ML
Aaron Judge 2+ total bases
Wyatt Langford to record a hit
If we play both sides of this matchup and back a Rangers bat to have some success, we’ll see a generous boost in the odds.
We’ll go with none other than Wyatt Langford here, who delivered a walk-off grand slam in Tuesday’s series opener. It extended his hitting streak to three games, as he’s now registered four hits in his last 12 at-bats.
Langford was 1-for-2 against Stroman in his only meeting against the veteran, reaching base twice in the contest, and that should come as no surprise as he’s hit a stunning .371 against ground-ball pitchers to lead the Rangers — racking up 45 total bases in just 79 plate appearances to top all hitters as well.
We should still see New York take an early lead, but I’m not looking past what Langford’s done lately.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Rangers odds
Yankees vs Rangers live odds
Yankees vs Rangers opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -115 | Texas -105
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+135) | Texas +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (+100) | Under 9 (-120)
Yankees vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees opened as a slight -120 favorite, but the line has since come down to a pick ‘em.
- New York has accounted for 79% of the moneyline bets and 81% of the handle at DraftKings.
- The total remains at the opening line of 8.5, though it took a brief trip up to nine and there’s been steady action on the Over, which has already moved the line back up at some books.
- A firm 77% of the tickets and 82% of the money are on the Over.
Yankees vs Rangers trend
The Texas Rangers have only hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 18 games at home (-4.70 Units / -20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rangers.
Yankees vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-4-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime Video, Bally Sports Southwest |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Marcus Stroman (10-6, 3.81 ERA) |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Nathan Eovaldi (10-7, 3.60 ERA) |
Yankees vs Rangers latest injuries
Yankees vs Rangers weather
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