The rubber match of a three-game series between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays takes place tonight at Tropicana Field.
The Yankees, who won 2-1 last night after dropping their series opener with the Rays, are tepid -120 road favorites in the MLB odds with the total sitting at 8.
Find out why my Yankees vs. Rays predictions and MLB picks are calling for runs galore in this getaway game on Thursday, July 11.
Yankees vs Rays prediction
My best bet
Over 8 (-106 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Nestor Cortes toes the rubber for the New York Yankees tonight, and his home/road splits are the stuff of nightmares. His road ERA is 5.63 (1.81 at home), and opponents are batting a full 100 points better against him outside of Yankee Stadium.
Cortes was able to shut out the Tampa Bay Rays over seven innings in the Bronx on April 20, but he was tagged for four runs over 5 1/3 innings in the rematch at Tropicana Field on May 11.
Once Cortes takes his exit, the Yankees' 22nd-rated bullpen by ERA since June 1 (4.54) will enter.
Shane Baz responds for the Rays, and the former Top 10 overall prospect is just trying to get his feet back under him at the major-league level after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2022. He turned in a quality start vs. the Texas Rangers in his 2024 debut on July 5, but the Yankees' lineup — particularly Aaron Judge and Juan Soto — will make him work.
Baz issued 23 walks in only 39 1/3 minor-league innings this year, and New York is baseball's most patient team with 364 walks drawn. The Bombers should get Baz's pitch count up in a hurry, necessitating an early entrance by a beleaguered Tampa Bay bullpen.
The Rays' relief corps also ranks 21st by bullpen ERA since June 1 (4.43), and they traded away one of their better arms in Phil Maton (no earned runs allowed in 10 of last 11 appearances) earlier this week.
Yankees vs Rays same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Amed Rosario Over 1.5 total bases
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 total bases
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Since I'm expecting runs, it's only logical to back a couple of players to post solid performances at the plate. I'm keen on both Amed Rosario and Yandy Diaz getting to Cortes, if not the Yankee relievers as well.
Rosario is 5-for-13 (.385) vs. Cortes with two home runs, and the four-seam fastball and cutter — Cortes' two most frequent offerings at a combined 75.8% — are Rosario's best pitches by xBA this year (.304 and .322, respectively).
Diaz is even more lethal vs. Cortes at 12-for-30 (.400) with three taters. He's batting .292 at home compared to .243 everywhere else.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Rays odds
Yankees vs Rays live odds
Yankees vs Rays opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (-110) | Tampa Bay +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York -112 | Tampa Bay +104
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Yankees vs Rays spread and Over/Under analysis
- FanDuel opened the Yankees at -134 but that was bet down overnight to -124 and fell again to -120 just before noon on Thursday. Most books opened New York in the -120 range and have remained there.
- This AL East rivalry has been back-and-forth lately, with the teams splitting the last 10 games.
- FanDuel was also forced to move from its opening total of 7.5 to 8, and it's been one-sided action there.
- Interestingly, the juice on Over 8 has ping-ponged from -115 to -120 and back at Caesars.
Yankees vs Rays trend
The Yankees have hit the Over in 25 of their last 37 games (+13.55 Units / 33% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays
Yankees vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:50 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, BSSUN |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Nestor Cortes (4-7, 3.51 ERA) |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Shane Baz (0-1, 4.50 ERA) |
Yankees vs Rays latest injuries
Yankees vs Rays weather
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