This college football season’s second game involving an FBS team will feature something you might never have seen before: An FCS team featured by two touchdowns. The line has steamed toward the Montana State Bobcats before they head south to face the New Mexico Lobos.
Our Montana State vs. New Mexico predictions think that line may have grown a bit too much, not that the Lobos give much reason to garner faith. Thus, our NCAAF picks will approach the total with an expectation of a grinding game, just as the Bobcats typically prefer.
Montana State vs New Mexico prediction
My best bet
Under 54.5 (-102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Montana State averaged 7.28 yards per rush last season, leading the FCS, and 291 rushing yards per game, No. 2 in the second level of college football. The Bobcats lived on the ground, in large part thanks to what could be considered the best offensive line in the FCS.
Both guards transferred to FBS teams, Cal and Baylor, underscoring both how good that offensive line was and how frustrating success can become nowadays with players immediately eligible after a transfer. Maintaining that caliber of play year-to-year has become an entirely new challenge for coaching staffs.
But at a program like Montana State’s, some depth should be expected. The Bobcats had to fill in for two offensive line starters due to injuries all of 2023, and the result obviously turned out well.
Many college football fans may outright dismiss FCS teams, but the top tier is better than at least a third of the FBS. And let’s make no mistake: Montana State is in that top tier, ranked No. 4 in the FCS preseason poll. One could argue the Bobcats would be the fourth-best roster in the Mountain West.
New Mexico has, at best, the No. 11 roster in the 12-team Mountain West. The Lobos return two offensive starters, neither on its offensive line. Its three-man defensive line returns largely intact, a defensive line that played a key role in posting the No. 127 defense in terms of expected points added per play. Let’s make that explanation simple: There were 133 teams in the FBS last year; ranking No. 127 in any defensive stat is a bad sign.
Against the run in these regards, the Lobos ranked No. 108. They will need to adjust their defense against the Bobcats, in particular, a 3-3-5 not well-suited to defend against a physical run game. All due respect to Bronco Mendenhall, altering a defensive philosophy simply for a season-opener against an FCS opponent would be a terrible choice if hoping to fare decently the rest of the season.
More likely, Montana State will dictate this game with its rushing prowess, and that will shrink the game overall. Unless New Mexico uncorks an explosive touchdown or two in the first half, shrinking the game should doom the scoreboard well short of 54.5.
Montana State vs New Mexico same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 54.5 points
New Mexico team total Under 20.5 points
New Mexico alternate spread +17.5
Perhaps this has all been too critical of New Mexico. The new coaching staff is working with a decent dual-threat quarterback, and while the receivers were not starting last year, there are some veterans.
Yes, that’s the extent of the effusive praise available. Starting five transfers along the offensive line is a recipe for disaster, particularly in September.
But betting an alternate spread has value here. This spread has moved a point or two further than it should, but still being inside two touchdowns makes a 14-point final margin too convenient to risk. However, if Montana State is going to shorten this game on the ground, then it may take only one explosive touchdown for the Lobos to stay within 17 points.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Montana State vs New Mexico odds
Montana State vs New Mexico live odds
Montana State vs New Mexico opening odds
- Spread: Montana State -4.5 (-112) | New Mexico +4.5 (-108)
- Moneyline: Montana State -194 | New Mexico +160
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 | Under 55.5
Montana State vs New Mexico spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened with the FCS team favored by 4.5 on July 4. And the march upward began. July 9, -6.5. July 12, -7.5. Those moves were understated. Come mid-August, this line sprinted, up to -9.5 a week ago, and then a point upward each day this week.
- In the last five years, no other FCS team has been favored by any more than four points against an FBS team. Only four have been favored, highlighted by Maine at -4 against UMass in 2021.
- The total did not jump with the spread, opening at 55.5, spending much of the summer at 53.5 and rising to 54.5 on Monday.
Montana State vs New Mexico betting trend to know
While always underdogs, it warrants noting that five of Montana State’s last six games against FBS foes have gone Under their totals, the exception being a blowout loss to Oregon State in 2022. In the other five games, the average scoreboard totaled 41 points. Find more college football betting trends for Montana State vs New Mexico.
Montana State vs New Mexico game info
| Location: | University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-24, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Montana State vs New Mexico latest injuries
Montana State vs New Mexico weather
Temperatures are expected to be in the high-90s, with a low chance of precipitation and winds from the SSW at just over 10 mph.
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Not intended for use in MA.
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