The scoreboard workers at Fenway Park have been busy as the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have worked over each other’s pitching in splitting the first two games of the series.
The rubber match will headline Sunday Night Baseball, and my free Yankees vs Red Sox predictions think the hits will keep coming.
Check out what bets I like best in my MLB picks for July 28, and be sure to also check out our three favorite SNB player props.
Yankees vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Over 9 (-122 at FanDuel)
My analysis
A total of 35 runs have been scored through the first two games of this series, and Sunday’s pitching matchup has the potential for even more fireworks.
The New York Yankees will start lefty Carlos Rodon, who is coming off an outlier of an effort last time out against the Rays where he picked up his 10th win of the year — throwing seven innings of two-hit ball and allowing just one earned run.
That snapped a six-game losing skid on Rodon starts, where the 31-year-old was lit on fire, allowing 30 runs and failing to pitch out of the fifth inning. He’s also allowed at least one home run in six straight outings. Rodon has surrendered 21 big flys on the year, one of only four pitchers in the majors to allow 20+.
He also struggled in his lone start at Fenway this year, getting torched for five runs on seven hits in five innings of work.
The Boston Red Sox will counter with righty Tanner Houck, who is coming off his own rough outing — blistered for 10 hits and four earned runs in six innings of work.
He was shaky in his lone start against the Yankees this year, lasting 3 1/3 innings, giving up two hits, three runs, and walking four. New York has scored the most runs in baseball, while the Red Sox rank eighth. They’re both inside the Top 7 in home runs hit and rank inside the Top 10 of almost all major hitting categories.
The Over is 5-1-1 over the last seven head-to-head matchups, and all signs point to another high-scoring affair between these AL East rivals.
Can Aaron Judge homer again vs. Boston?
It’s been a sensational year for Aaron Judge, who has belted home runs in each of the first two games of this series against the Red Sox. Those upped his totals to an MLB-best 37 homers and 95 RBI.
But in this remarkable campaign, one thing New York’s big bopper hasn’t done is go deep in each game of any series.
Judge has hit dingers in at least three consecutive games three times, but each time he accomplished the feat, the games were stretched across two different series.
And while he’s taken five different Boston pitchers deep in his career, none of those have come against Houck. He is hitting .300 against him in 10 ABs, all of them singles. I'm banking on that trend continuing Sunday.
Yankees vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9.5 runs
Rafael Devers to record a run
Juan Soto 2+ total bases
Rafael Devers picked up a hit in Saturday’s loss — giving him hits in four straight games — while also plating a run for the fourth straight contest. Devers is hitting 8-for-15 in his last four games, a blistering .533 clip.
He’s hitting .300 in 10 ABs against Rodon, so the lefty-on-lefty matchup should be ok. And with Rodon's struggles, Devers is a good bet to get on base and score Sunday.
After going hitless in the opener, Juan Soto bounced back in a big way, going 2-for-5 with a home run, two RBI, and two runs scored. He now has hits in 11 of the last 14 games, nine of those of the multi-hit variety.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
Yankees vs Red Sox live odds
Yankees vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-210) | Boston -1.5 (+175)
- Moneyline: New York -105 | Boston -115
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)
Yankees vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- New York is 2-5 in its last seven games.
- The Red Sox have won five of the last seven head-to-head matchups.
- Boston has gone Over the total in six straight vs American League competition.
- The Yankees have cashed the Over in six of their last seven games.
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Yankees vs Red Sox trend
Boston has won six straight vs. AL teams following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox
Yankees vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-28-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (10-7, 4.42 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (8-6, 2.71 ERA) |
Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries
Yankees vs Red Sox weather
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