The return of Kawhi Leonard to the Los Angeles Clippers’ lineup wasn’t enough to capture a commanding series lead over the Dallas Mavericks.
Now this Western Conference quarterfinal swings to the Lone Star State tied 1-1, framing tonight's Clippers vs. Mavericks predictions.
The first two games in Los Angeles were defensive battles, with these rivals scoring a collective 206 and 187 points. That’s led the NBA odds to significantly cut down the total for tonight’s Game 3.
I break down the spread and Over/Under for Game 3 and give my best NBA picks for April 26.
Clippers vs Mavericks predictions
My best bet
Los Angeles Clippers +4.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
As of Friday morning, Kawhi Leonard is questionable to play in Game 3 due to lingering knee issues that sidelined him for three weeks before his return to action in Game 2.
While that unknown and recency bias is pushing the market toward the Mavericks, it sounds like Leonard will be good to go on Friday and potentially play more than the 35 minutes he put in on Tuesday.
The postseason scheduling definitely helps the Clippers’ cause, giving Los Angeles an extra day off with the series swinging venues. According to Los Angeles head coach Tyronn Lue, Leonard’s usage is still to be determined, but he “feels good” after Thursday’s practice and will be the healthiest he’s been in a long time.
Kawhi was visibly rusty in Game 2, finishing 7-for-17 from the floor for only 15 points, though he was able to contribute in other ways, including on the glass and defensively. Leonard was sluggish in the opening 24 minutes but looked more like his former MVP form in the second half.
Defensively, Los Angeles has been fantastic through two games. The Clippers have checked Dallas to less than 100 points in both outings, limiting the Mavs to an effective field goal rate of just 48.1%. They’ve also taken one of the more up-tempo offenses in the NBA and stuck them in mud, dropping Dallas’ pace rating from 100.6 in the regular season to 92.5 in the playoffs.
That defense will travel, and the Los Angeles offense can only improve with Leonard getting looser and Lue fine-tuning his rotations with a full lineup. I don’t expect the same slow start that we witnessed in Game 2 (L.A. scored only 41 points in the 1H), which works to the Clippers’ pace as they won't be playing from behind.
Another note to keep in mind is that Mavericks could be thin in the frontcourt, with center Daniel Gafford listed as questionable for Game 3. Gafford, who averages 11 points and almost eight rebounds, missed practice on Thursday with back spasms after playing limited minutes in the first two games of the playoffs.
Gafford’s limitations have already been exploited inside, and if he is out, Dallas’ defense loses one of the best answers for Clippers center Ivica Zubac, who’s been excellent inside for the first two games of the series.
The 4.5-point spread seems too high considering what we’ve seen from Los Angeles’ defense and the offensive uptick a warmed-up Leonard brings to the floor Friday night.
Clippers vs Mavericks same-game parlay (SGP)
Los Angeles Clippers +4.5
Kawhi Leonard Over 5.5 rebounds
Russell Westbrook Over 7.5 points
The spread feels too high, considering the ceiling for this Clippers team on both sides of the ball now that Leonard is healthy.
Leonard hauled down seven rebounds in Game 2, and player projections call for six-plus boards tonight.
Russell Westbrook is a much-needed spark off the bench for L.A., and game models forecast closer to 10 points from him in Game 3.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Clippers vs Mavericks odds
Clippers vs Mavericks live odds
Get the latest Clippers vs Mavericks NBA playoff odds for Game 3.
Clippers vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +3.5 (-110) | Dallas -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +135 | Dallas -160
- Over/Under: Over 209.5 (-110) | Under 209.5 (-110)
Clippers vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
• Following the Mavericks’ 96-93 victory in L.A. on Tuesday, oddsmakers opened the Game 3 spread at Dallas -3.5. With Leonard officially listed as “questionable” for Friday, after sitting out Game 1 with knee soreness, that line ticked up to -4.5.
• As for the Over/Under total, the low-scoring finish in Game 2 has forced bookmakers to reset their projections for the Over/Under. Games 1 and 2 drew closing totals of 221.5 and 216.5, and both played Under. The Game 3 number hit the board as low as 209.5 points and is sitting at 211.5 as of Friday morning.
• With the series tied at 1-1, the series price has flipped from its opening numbers. The Clippers were originally -145 favorites, with the Mavs coming back at +120. But with the win in Game 2 and the next two contests in Dallas, the Mavericks are -145 faves with L.A. at +120 to win the quarterfinal pairing.
• According to Covers Consensus data, 58% of picks are laying the points with the Mavericks at home in Game 3. As for the Over/Under, 61% of picks are banking on a higher-scoring finish on Friday.
Clippers vs Mavericks trend
The L.A. Clippers have won outright on the moneyline in 26 of their last 35 away games (+19.10 Units). Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Mavericks.
Clippers vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Friday, 4-26-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Clippers vs Mavericks latest injuries
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