Grizzlies vs Pelicans Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Jackson's Shine Doesn't Wear Off

Are the Memphis Grizzlies truly back from the dead or are they merely delaying the inevitable? The Grizz are 3-0 since Ja Morant’s return from suspension but are still five games back from the final play-in spot, and they’re facing off against the New Orleans Pelicans tonight in a rematch of Morant’s debut game from a week ago.

Morant’s first game back against the Pelicans amazed, but the Pels will no doubt be eager to redeem themselves ever since their fourth-quarter collapse and last-second loss. Can Memphis pull off another NBA odds upset to make it four wins in a row?

My NBA picks and predictions for Grizzlies vs. Pelicans are taking stock of Jaren Jackson Jr.’s unheralded offensive growth.

Grizzlies vs Pelicans odds

Grizzlies vs Pelicans predictions

Jaren Jackson Jr. has borne a lot of the criticism as the Memphis Grizzlies season has gone to shambles. After he struggled for Team USA at the World Cup, there was a ready-made narrative in place to lay all the Grizzlies' difficulties right at his feet.

Some of those quibbles, namely ones about his rebounding and inability to log full-time center minutes, are valid. But Jaren has taken far too much blame for his play this season given the sharp decline in talent around him. 

Furthermore, he’s continued to demonstrate strong offensive growth in Ja Morant’s absence, which should continue paying dividends now that the All-Star guard has returned.

Most big men, even All-NBA level ones, need a set-up man to put them in a position to succeed. Not only has Morant missed most of the season, but so have Marcus Smart and Derrick Rose. Jaren has been making do without the Grizzlies' first, second, or third options at point guard for nearly the entire season to date.

So, Jaren’s overall efficiency is down, even though he is up to 21.4 points per game, but he has improved even in adverse circumstances.

Jackson’s isolation scoring tells the tale of that improvement. He's scoring 1.22 points per possession in isolation, 16th best in the NBA, and has more than doubled his isolation frequency since last year.  

He’s now only trailing James Harden in effectiveness for players who have an iso frequency of 10% or more. That’s elite stuff and it should complement Jaren’s more traditional role of playing off Morant.

Even though his offensive load is likely to decline with Morant back in the fold, Jackson's efficiency should jump more than enough to make up for it. He's flashed a strong face-up off the dribble game, but he’s deadly as a pick-and-roll finisher, whether getting all the way to the rim or via a much-improved floater game.

When the Grizzlies played the New Orleans Pelicans last week, it was clear that Jackson was a matchup nightmare for them. He was simply too agile with the ball for Zion Williamson to defend him in space and his ability to stretch the floor from deep was too much ground to cover for Jonas Valanciunas, and he was too long for everybody else.

Because of those mismatch advantages, Jackson put the Pelicans into many bad spots. That, in turn, led to 15 free-throw attempts to go along with his 6-for-10 shooting from the field.

While his scoring will decline from his 26.5 points per game over his last 10 with Morant back running the show, I think these Jackson odds are predicting much too big of a drop-off. Jaren has still scored at least 20 points in every game played with Morant this season so far.

My best bet: Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 18.5 points (-110 at bet365)

Grizzlies vs Pelicans same-game parlay

Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 18.5 points

Jaren Jackson Jr. Over 1.5 made threes

Jonas Valanciunas Over 10.5 rebounds

+575 at bet365

One of the ways I expect Jackson's shot profile to change with Morant back is an uptick in threes. His shooting from outside has been spotty this year, but that’s largely because he’s been forced into taking more difficult shots than he’s comfortable with. 

It’s one thing to get the ball with a semi-contested look with time running out on the clock, and quite another to get it directly into the shooting pocket in rhythm. Morant can make the latter happen consistently. The Pels also allow more opponent 3-point attempts than almost any other team.

The last leg of my SGP homes in on one of Jackson's weaknesses that I highlighted earlier: rebounding. The Grizzlies are 20th in defensive rebounding even though they play two bigs, and Jonas is a monster on the glass. Valanciunas is just so much bigger than Jackson and Xavier Tillman, and he’s traditionally dominated on the boards against Memphis whenever Steven Adams is absent.

JV has had eleven or more rebounds in seven of his last 10 games and is averaging 11.5 boards in that span. He had 14 against the Grizzlies last Tuesday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Grizzlies vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for tonight's tilt has seen some minor movement but has mostly settled at -4.5 to -5 in favor of the Pelicans. The Pels just lost a nail-biter against the Houston Rockets on Saturday, but even with that loss, they have been outperforming the spread by 5.3 points per game over their last six games per Cleaning the Glass. They’ve been particularly strong at home, where they’re 10-5 against the spread on the season. 

This could also be the return game for Marcus Smart. Smart’s impact was pretty muted for the Grizzlies before his injury, but I suspect he can be a force multiplier with Morant back and healthy. He’s not a strong high-usage player, but by bringing a bit of playmaking, a bit of defense, and a bit of shooting, he checks every box that Memphis needs to raise the floor of their play in just about every area.

The total for Tuesday is available between 228.5 and 229.5, depending on the sportsbook. New Orleans has been one of the NBA’s three best defenses over the last two weeks, a testament to the quality of wing defenders like Herb Jones, Dyson Daniels, and Trey Murphy III. 

Valanciunas also deserves praise for a strong defensive season and has had more of a consistent role as Larry Nance Jr. continues to miss time. The Under is 3-1 when the Pelicans have two to three days off.

Even though Morant is not a positive impact defender, the Grizzlies defense has been much better in his return as well. The guard simplifies the game for everyone around him, and reducing live ball turnovers and having a chance to set up their halfcourt defense because they’re scoring more often has made a big difference. 

Grizzlies vs Pelicans betting trend to know

The Pelicans are 10-5 ATS at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Pelicans.

Grizzlies vs Pelicans game info

Grizzlies vs Pelicans latest injuries

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