The Charlotte Hornets’ tanking efforts for Cooper Flagg may have escalated without us noticing. Charlotte has not simply lost its last four games and seven of its last eight; it has lost its last four games by an average of 36.3 points.
The Dallas Mavericks cannot assume they will benefit from such a rout, but that should be the reality, nonetheless.
My Hornets vs. Mavericks prediction will focus on perhaps the starkest part of Charlotte’s free fall, its best player. Check out my NBA picks for Thursday, February 27.
Hornets vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
LaMelo Ball Under 24.5 points (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
LaMelo Ball is only 23 years old. Let’s be honest, we all made mistakes at 23. We all got distracted at 23. None of us were at our strongest mentally and psychologically at 23. Furthermore, our physical pain tolerances were lower, too.
Those may not be the reasons Ball has fallen off so sharply in his fifth season, but it cannot be denied that he has fallen off in recent weeks. Since he returned from a sprained ankle, Ball has shot 32.9% from the field. Slow down for a second and realize how horrid that is.
Ball has never been the most efficient scorer, but he was shooting 41.9% from the field this season before that injury. Equally as notable, Ball was hitting 33.7% of 12.3 threes per game before the injury. In the five games since, that has fallen to 28.9% on 7.8 threes per game.
Is Ball’s ankle worse than acknowledged? He has missed four games during his return, two of them the second nights of back-to-backs.
Has he let go of the rope as the Charlotte Hornets dive towards the bottom of the standings? The Hornets have successfully lost — there is a word choice — their way to the third-worst record in the NBA, bad enough to have the best odds possible at landing Duke superstar Cooper Flagg.
Whatever the reason, Ball has fallen off. In four of his five games since he angered his ankle, he has fallen short of this points prop.
The Dallas Mavericks’ defense has been wretched in the last month, No. 26 in defensive rating since Jan. 20, but Ball scored just 13 points in more than 28 minutes against the Kings on Monday night, a worse defense. Until his shooting improves — going 3-of-13 overall and 1-of-7 from deep in Sacramento — Ball should be doubted.
Hornets vs Mavericks same-game parlay
LaMelo Ball Under 24.5 points
LaMelo Ball Under 3.5 made threes
Hornets Team Total Under 108.5
Occam’s razor argues Ball’s ankle is the problem. His 3-point shooting has looked too ugly to be a purely mental or psychological drop-off. Making only 28.9% of late means one has to trust Ball to take 14 threes to wreck that leg of this same-game parlay. That would be nearly double his usual frequency of late.
Such doubt in Ball easily plays into a Charlotte Team Total Under. The Hornets’ defense has held up the last couple months. It provided some intrigue as they readied this full-fledged tank. But their offense has fallen apart more and more, now ranking last in the NBA in rating in the last month of games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Hornets vs Mavericks odds
Hornets vs Mavericks live odds
Hornets vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Charlotte +9.5 (-110) | Dallas -9.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Charlotte +320 | Dallas -400
- Over/Under: Over 225.5 (-110) | Under 225.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Hornets vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Mavericks opened as nine-point favorites on Wednesday afternoon, a number that climbed to -10 in the evening and then -10.5 late last night.
- This spread returned to -10 by sunrise and to -9.5 in the morning.
- This total opened at 223 on Wednesday afternoon and found 224 by the morning, then climbing to 225.5 early in the workday.
Hornets vs Mavericks trend
Charlotte has cashed the Under on its Team Total in eight of its last 10 games, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 9.2 points even when including the two successes. Find more NBA betting trends for Hornets vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Hornets vs Mavericks
| Location | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date | Thursday, 2-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FanDuel Sports Network Charlotte, KFAA/WFAA |
Hornets vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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