Kings vs Suns Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Sacramento Gets Scorched by Suns

With the All-Star break just around the corner, the battle for playoff seeding is heating up in the Western Conference.

The Sacramento Kings and Phoenix Suns are playing in one such pivotal matchup on Tuesday, February 13, as they find themselves neck and neck in the fight to get out of the play-in tournament. 

Just a single game separates the fifth-seeded New Orleans Pelicans from the eighth-seeded Dallas Mavericks, and the Kings and Suns are in a dogfight right now as the sixth and seventh seeds.

My NBA picks and predictions for Kings vs. Suns believe that Phoenix should be even bigger NBA odds favorites than they are.

Kings vs Suns odds

Kings vs Suns predictions

The Phoenix Suns are here and they are dangerous. While another injury could always unravel things at some point, for now, we’re beginning to see why many picked the Suns to dethrone the Denver Nuggets during the preseason.

They’re 5-2 in their last seven games, and their most recent loss came to a red-hot Golden State Warriors team. The Suns' loss to the barely .500 Warriors might look discouraging on paper, but it was a nip-and-tuck defeat that took the ultimate backbreaking late-game trey by Steph Curry to win it.

The Warriors season-long record might not be impressive, but they have been playing at an incredibly high level lately. The Warriors are 7-1 in the past two weeks, with a league-leading spread differential of 12.3, per Cleaning the Glass.

The Suns losing a close one to Golden State shouldn’t be a demerit against them. It’s a credit to them that they’re expected to beat a team playing at that high of a level right now. 

It all starts with Phoenix on offense. The Suns have begun to figure out the balance between Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal in a way that makes them legitimately scary. They’re experimenting more and more with Durant as a small ball center too. In admittedly a small sample of 88 possessions, they have a 131.7 offensive rating. 

Those lineups allow them to put out groups with not just five shooters, but five guys who can dribble, pass, and shoot at a high level. That’s tough to defend for any team, and it’s downright hopeless for the Sacramento Kings.

The Kings rely on Domantas Sabonis on the backline, and he’s a weak pick and roll defender. If he comes to the level of the screen, it’s easy to see Durant burning this team on the roll. All it takes is a simple pull up in the mid-range, which while a shot scorned by other teams, is a high percentage look for three of the Suns' five best players.

The Suns lineups featuring Jusuf Nurkic and the big three are no slouch either, with the lineup of Booker, Durant, Beal, Eric Gordon, and Nurkic having a +18.6 net rating in 344 possessions.

The Kings' best units simply have nothing close to that. Their most used lineup is their starters at +7.6, and the rest of their regularly used units are middling to outright negative per Cleaning the Glass.

The Kings have been the steadier team this season, but they don’t have the high-level gear that the Suns have reached of late. As this game is at home and crucial to the West standings, I’m expecting Phoenix to throw their best punch.

My best bet: Suns -4.5 (-115 at Betway)

Kings vs Suns same-game parlay

Suns -5

De’Aaron Fox Under 23.5 points

Kevin Durant Over 6.5 rebounds

+435 at DraftKings

Something is not quite right with De’Aaron Fox.

Fox hasn’t missed time with injury since a minor shoulder injury some time ago, but it sometimes looks like he’s playing hurt. He might just be worn down heading into the All-Star break, but Fox has looked nothing like he did to open the season when he was garnering dark horse MVP ballot buzz.

In his last five games, he’s averaging just 20.4 points, but in four straight he’s had 19 points or fewer and has a true shooting percentage of 44.2%. This is easily the worst stretch of his season. Shorting him on Tuesday is an easy addition to my same-game parlay.

For the last leg, I’m going with KD Over 6.5 rebounds.

Rebounding is one of the more underrated aspects of Durant’s game. He is an outstanding rebounder for a forward, regularly ranking 90th percentile and above on the defensive boards per Cleaning the Glass. While allegedly 6-foot-9, Durant seems to be at eye level with just about every traditional center, and dwarfs opposing wings and forwards who typically guard him. 

His ability to get skinny isn’t just a boon to slipping screens either. He can prod and poke away at rebounds most players would ultimately commit fouls trying to nab. He’s averaging 7.4 rebounds in his last 10 games and has had seven or more in seven of them. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kings vs Suns spread and Over/Under analysis

The Suns opened at -4.5 for Tuesday’s tilt, and that’s risen as high as -5.5 at some sportsbooks.

If going just by the overall trends, then the Kings are a good bet to cover. But the season long trends can be deceiving given how much growth the Suns have shown over the past month and a half.  

More recent indicators favor Phoenix. Over the past two weeks the Suns have a +4.3 spread differential compared to the Kings’ -3.3 mark, per Cleaning the Glass.

Phoenix is also going to benefit from the addition of Royce O’Neal. While he’s lost a half-step since his Utah Jazz days, he’s still another quality shooter and connective passer, the two most important traits to fit in with the Suns' top trio.

While Sacramento has had fewer peaks and valleys on the season as a whole, the Kings have been maddeningly inconsistent of late. They’ve suffered multiple blowout losses recently, including a dispiriting double-digit loss at home to the Detroit Pistons. 

Unsurprisingly, given the teams involved, oddsmakers are projecting a steep total for today’s game with the line opening between 243 and 243.5 and climbing as high as 245.5 in the hours since.

There’s certainly the requisite firepower on both squads to justify a number like that, but I’m wary of betting the Over after it’s risen two or more points.

Like most teams, the Suns shoot better at home than on the road.  That’s contributed to the Over cashing in 15 of their 27 home games this season. 

That’s counteracted by the Kings who shoot much worse on the road, however. If this line goes Under it will because Keegan Murray does a great job defending Durant, and the Suns somehow don’t exploit Sabonis in the pick and roll.

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Kings vs Suns betting trend to know

The Suns have a +4.3 spread differential over their last six games. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Suns.

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Kings vs Suns latest injuries

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