The Minnesota Timberwolves refuse to start a game well. They refuse to string together four quality quarters. They refuse to look like a Western Conference contender again.
Fortunately for the Timberwolves, they now welcome the Sacramento Kings, who Minnesota has beaten twice this season. Yet, neither side leads my Kings vs. Timberwolves predictions, because any free NBA picks for Wednesday, November 27 should know the best value in this game comes from a specific player prop.
Kings vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 threes (-145 at bet365)
My analysis
Tuesday's best bet reigns true this evening, as sportsbooks continue to fail to properly adjust to Anthony Edwards’s shooting habits.
Yes, it fell short on Tuesday in the Minnesota Timberwolves overtime loss to Houston. Edwards hit only three of 12 attempts from deep, falling short of Over 3.5 threes... but the emphasis should be on those 12 attempts.
Set aside the reality that Edwards’s last three or four attempts all drew inside the rim. Focus on how many attempts he took. For that matter, to be more genuine, let’s remove the two attempts he misfired in overtime.
Edwards took 10 threes in regulation last night. Even after last night’s poor shooting, he is hitting 42.6% of his 3-pointers this season, heaving 11.2 per game.
This prop should be consistently set at 4.5 by now, the odds fluctuating based on the opponent. Instead, it remains at 3.5.
Last night was always a tough matchup for this prop, given Houston entered the game ranking No. 4 in 3-pointer frequency against (34.7 per game) and No. 7 in percentage against (34.3%).
Tonight does not present those same worries, as the Sacramento Kings sit No. 27 in 3-pointer frequency against (39.6 per game) and No. 29 in percentage against (38.1%).
Frankly, realizing how bad the Kings are at defending the arc, it is even more absurd that this prop has not climbed to 4.5. Oddsmakers refuse to recognize how often Edwards is shooting from deep, which is why he has cashed the Over on his 3-pointer prop in 12 of 17 games, including two against Sacramento in which he went 11-of-29 from long range.
Kings vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 threes
Anthony Edwards Under 4.5 assists
Timberwolves team total Over 110.5
Veteran point guard Mike Conley has missed the last three games due to a big toe injury. He came off the injury report today, and the Timberwolves will be better for it.
Before dishing out just one assist last night, Edwards was better moving the ball when Conley was not around, averaging 4.3 assists through three games compared to his 3.8 assists per game in 13 games with Conley this season.
Conley’s impact on the Timberwolves is broadly underappreciated. With him, their offensive rating this year has been 117.5. Without him, even with Rob Dillingham’s strong play last night, their offensive rating plummets to 107.0 in four games. That drop-off is drastic enough to invalidate any sample size concerns.
But with Conley’s return, value may be had again in trusting Minnesota to score.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kings vs Timberwolves odds
Kings vs Timberwolves live odds
Kings vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Sacramento +5.5 | Minnesota -5.5
- Moneyline: Sacramento +185 | Minnesota -225
- Over/Under: Over 223.5 | Under 223.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Kings vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a 5.5-point favorite before Tuesday’s loss, that overtime game dropping this number to -4.5 overnight and then to -3.5 early Wednesday morning.
- This total hit the market at 223.5 and then fell to 220.5 at sunrise, presumably another reaction to the Timberwolves going to overtime last night.
- As Wednesday carried on, the total kept falling, volleying at 217 before ticking back upward to 217.5 in the early afternoon.
- Conley’s availability should lend some value in the Over, if interested.
Kings vs Timberwolves trend
While Minnesota is just 2-6 against the spread in its last eight games, Sacramento is 0-6 in its last six. Good luck trusting either side of this spread. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Kings vs Timberwolves
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-27-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports California, FanDuel Sports Network North X |
Kings vs Timberwolves latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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