The Los Angeles Lakers aim to give LeBron James a belated birthday present when they visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday.
James was denied victory on his actual birthday Saturday night, with NBA odds favorite Minnesota playing the role of party pooper.
Now, Los Angeles rolls into the Big Easy on Sunday, meeting New Orleans for the first time since trashing the Pelicans 133-89 in the semifinals of the NBA In-Season tournament earlier this month.
I run down the spread and Over/Under total for this New Year’s Eve bash, as well as give my best NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Pelicans on December 31.
Lakers vs Pelicans odds
Lakers vs Pelicans predictions
The Pelicans’ loss to the Lakers in the in-season tournament semifinals was an overall mess. New Orleans came up short on so many levels, including offense.
The team shot a dismal 36% from the floor, with veteran guard CJ McCollum finishing the night 4-for-14 with only nine points. But since that embarrassing effort, McCollum has been sharp offensively.
He’s averaging 20 points over his last nine contests while shooting 50% from the field, including a 48% clip from beyond the 3-point arc.
McCollum is coming off a 22-point effort in the win over Utah last Thursday, and his scoring prop for tonight’s rematch with Los Angeles sits at 18.5 points (Over -106).
NBA player projections for New Year’s Eve either come in on or above McCollum’s point total, with a floor of 18.5 and a ceiling of 20. My number versus the Lakers comes out just north of 19.5 points, but there’s an opportunity for more scoring, given injuries and the matchup.
New Orleans could be down top reserve forward Trey Murphy (knee), who averages just shy of 15 points per game and is very active from outside with 6.5 3-point attempts an outing. If Murphy can’t go — or is limited like last game — McCollum’s long-distance duties put in overtime, with the guard already shooting 7.7 triples per game.
Los Angeles’ tough interior defense pushes opponents to the perimeter, with foes settling for 37.5 3-point attempts per game — fifth-most in the NBA. On the road, the Lakers let those host teams knock down more than 14 of those looks from distance.
McCollum and the Pels do catch the Lakers in a sizable situational spot, having last played on December 28 and L.A. flying overnight after losing in Minnesota on Saturday evening.
Given his scoring projections, potential uptick in offensive looks, and a languid Lakers team playing the second of back-to-back nights (and likely looking ahead to New Year’s Eve in NOLA), I like McCollum to go Over this NBA player prop on Sunday.
My best bet: CJ McCollum Over 18.5 points (-106 at FanDuel)
Lakers vs Pelicans same-game parlay
CJ McCollum Over 18.5 Points
CJ McCollum 3+ 3-pointers made
Over 230.5 points
Player projections are very positive for McCollum, who has averaged 20 ppg since that bad showing in the In-Season semifinal.
McCollum attempts almost eight triples an outing, and if Murphy is out, the veteran guard will get extra touches from deep.
Los Angeles is playing its second straight game on the road and these teams sit No. 9 and No. 11 in pace rating. The Lakers are the best Over bet on the road so far this season.
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Lakers vs Pelicans spread and Over/Under analysis
Following Saturday’s nail-biter in Minnesota, the Lakers opened as 5.5-point road underdogs in NOLA. That spread has since climbed to as high as +7.5. Covers Consensus shows 54% of early picks backing the visitor.
As of Sunday morning, LeBron James isn’t showing up on the injury report after being questionable for Saturday’s game due to illness. This is the second stop of back-to-back outings, and we have seen L.A. opt to rest its veterans in these spots.
That initial move up from L.A. +5.5 to +7.5 does hint toward L.A. sitting its stars, so don’t be surprised to see LeBron or even Anthony Davis feature as questionable later in the day, which will send this spread climbing further. Currently D’Angelo Russell and Gabe Vincent are the only Lakers officially out for New Year’s Eve.
As for New Orleans’ roster, Murphy is a game-time decision due to a sore left knee that has hacked into his playing time. He played only 23 minutes in the Pelicans’ 112-105 win over Utah on December 28.
Sunday’s showdown with Los Angeles marks the fourth straight home game for the Pels, who are 10-7 ATS inside the Smoothie King Center. However, New Orleans had lost three straight at home before knocking off the Jazz last Thursday and hasn’t covered at home in four straight outings.
This game in the Big Easy closes out a road-heavy schedule for Los Angeles, which has played 10 of its last 13 contests away from home, including the two in-season tournament games in Las Vegas. The Lakers are 10-10 ATS in road/neutral site settings this season.
Sunday’s Over/Under total opened as low as 228.5 points and is now up to 230.5 at most sportsbooks. Covers Consensus shows 59% of picks siding with the Over.
Los Angeles is the best Over bet on the road with a 12-6 O/U count as a visitor. The Lakers’ lack of defensive intensity as a visitor is the main cause for this Over success, allowing 117.9 points per road stop versus just 108.9 points per homestand. However, they checked Minnesota to only 108 points Saturday, including just 47 in the second half.
New Orleans enters the final day of 2023 with a 15-17 O/U record, going 8-9 O/U at home. The Pelicans have split Over/Under results over the last eight contests. They do run the 11th-fastest pace in the NBA (100.28) and face an L.A. attack that sits ninth in pace rating (100.89).
The in-season tournament semis closed with a neutral-site total of 229 points on December 7. The Lakers' one-sided 133-89 victory stayed Under that number.
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Lakers vs Pelicans betting trend to know
The Lakers are 12-6 Over/Under on the road compared to 5-9 O/U at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Pelicans.
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Lakers vs Pelicans game info
| Location: | Smoothie King Arena, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Sunday, December 31, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports New Orleans, Spectrum SportsNet |
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