Mavericks vs 76ers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Reeling Sixers Feel Embiid's Absence Against Doncic

The Philadelphia 76ers have some internal decisions to make now that Joel Embiid is sidelined for the foreseeable future with a meniscus tear. With the trade deadline on Thursday, those decisions need to be made quickly, regardless of how they fare against the Dallas Mavericks tonight.

The Mavericks are unlikely to alter their roster much this week, an unsteady season undone to this point mostly by injuries. And those injuries have skewed tonight’s spread in the NBA odds, at least for now.

Deciphering Dallas’s availability is key in our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Mavericks vs. the 76ers on Monday, February 5, with tip set for 7:00 ET.

Mavericks vs 76ers odds

Mavericks vs 76ers predictions

Frustration is understandably mounting for the Dallas Mavericks. They were No. 3 in the Western Conference at 16-9 through 25 games, looking like the most cohesive team of the Luka Doncic era. In the 24 games since, Dallas has struggled to 10-14 and fallen to No. 8 in the West, 2.5 games back from escaping the play-in tournament.

The reasons for the fall are simple: Luka has missed seven of those 24 games, Kyrie Irving has missed 14, Josh Green six, and Dereck Lively II 11. The Mavs simply cannot get or stay healthy.

They will still be without Lively and Dante Exum tonight, but Doncic, Irving, and Green should all play together. Simply enough, it is difficult to ascribe a trend to that availability, given the trio has seen only six games together since Dec. 2. They went 2-4 in those games, but the sample size skews any applicability.

Mere availability warrants notice, though. Particularly against the team in the NBA suddenly most undone by a lack of it.

Embiid’s injury shifts every Philadelphia thought for the 2023-24 season. The 76ers should have enough of a cushion to stay out of the play-in tournament, but even that may be in doubt.

Embiid played in 34 games this season, missing 14 to date. Philadelphia’s net rating is 15.2 points worse without Embiid than it is with him, -4.9 compared to +10.3. The difference shows up with a pretty even offensive/defensive split, with the offensive rating 7.1 points worse without Embiid and the defensive rating 8.1 points worse.

Sportsbooks know that. The algorithms can factor it in. But this is the type of injury that may not be factored in enough. This particular handicapper prefers to espouse, "Buy on bad news, sell on good," but losing Embiid for so long should be the exception that proves that rule.

Dallas has a chance at some health showing itself tonight, perhaps rekindling its November and early December successes. Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s season suddenly feels like an exercise in futility. With the Mavericks as short favorites tonight, that spread is too enticing to ignore as these trend lines continue on different trajectories.

My best bet: Mavericks -3.5 (-108 at FanDuel)

Mavericks vs 76ers same-game parlay

Mavericks -3.5

Mavericks team total Over 123.5

Luka Doncic Over 9.5 assists

50% boost available

+330 +495 at DraftKings

Maybe Joel Embiid has been underrated. His offensive certainty has come to be understood and appreciated, but did the NBA viewing public properly acknowledge his defensive impact?

The 76ers still have quality defenders in Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, and even Nicolas Batum. Yet their defensive rating falls by 8.1 points per 100 possessions without Embiid? The Cambodian may be more of a two-way force than he is given credit for.

All three of Philadelphia’s last three opponents hit their team total Overs, and two did it by more than 20 points. Things may turn ugly for the 76ers defense moving forward, including tonight against the nearly whole Mavericks.

With more options to find, Luka should turn into his best form, the playmaking version that dictates every ounce of Dallas’s offense. In 11 games since January 1, Doncic has averaged 10.5 assists, reaching double-digit dimes in five of his last seven games. Playing alongside Kyrie only opens up more passing lanes for Doncic, not that he actually needs those to find open shooters, mind you.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mavericks vs 76ers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Mavericks opened as 2-point favorites on Sunday afternoon, a number that fell as low as -1 on Sunday evening before gradually climbing all of Monday as confidence increased in player availability. In fact, the above best bet was originally written up at -2.5 before the line moved, but -3.5 isn't scaring off the logic.

The total moved with those positive Dallas injury updates, as well, inching up to 243.5 and even 244.5 at some books from opening at 242.5. Take confidence in that, given how porous Philadelphia’s defense looks without Embiid.

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Mavericks vs 76ers betting trend to know

While Philadelphia is 16-8 against the spread at home this season, it is just 1-2 ATS at home without Embiid. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. 76ers.

Mavericks vs 76ers game info

Mavericks vs 76ers latest injuries

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