A new week of NBA action tips off with a whopping 12 games for basketball bettors to wager on.
That means a mountain of data regarding NBA player prop markets. Luckily, I’m here to sum up that data and bring you my three favorite plays of the day.
Those include fades of the stumbling Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks. Check out my NBA picks for Monday, March 10 below.
Best NBA player props today
-
Wells 3+ threes (+155 at bet365) -
Biyombo Over 6.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365) -
Moody Over 11.5 points (-120 at bet365)
NBA player props for March 10
Jaylen Wells 3+ threes (+155 at bet365)
The Phoenix Suns’ season is setting fast. The team still hasn’t figured things out and are 4-6 since coming out of the All-Star break, leaving them at 30-34 for the season and in 11th place in the Western Conference.
Phoenix has the second-worst defensive rating since the All-Star break and has been getting absolutely burned on the perimeter. During this 10-game stretch following the break, the Suns allow opponents to shoot an NBA-high 40.4% from 3-point range while giving up the fourth most attempts.
That has resulted in a league-worst 16.8 made threes per game over that stretch and tonight they’ll be tasked with trying to slow down the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Grizz haven’t been playing great as a team but they still have some dead-eye shooters, including Desmond Bane and rookie Jaylen Wells. Today, I wasn’t to focus on Wells.
The 21-year-old out of Washington State is having a solid rookie season, averaging 11.1 points while shooting 37.2% from beyond the arc and he’s found his shooting rhythm lately.
Wells is draining 39.2% of his 6.4 attempted threes per game over the last eight games and has hit three or more threes four times over that stretch. His threes made prop is at 1.5 for this matchup but is very juiced to the Over as you would expect.
Instead, with this great matchup I’ll take his alt threes made prop at 3+, which is on the board at +155.
Bismack Biyombo Over 6.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
This season must feel like a sick joke for Dallas Mavericks fans now. It's been a tough go, from the Luka Doncic trade to the Kyrie Irving injury.
The injuries have been specifically bad. Irving is the latest but the Mavericks’ frontcourt has taken the biggest hit. Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively, and Daniel Gafford are all out, and PJ Washington is questionable.
Basically, the Mavs have no presence in the paint, and it's costing them on the boards. Since the All-Star break, the Mavericks ranked dead last in rebounding rate, and without guys like Irving and AD, the Mavs’ shooting has plummeted. They have the fifth-worst effective field goal percentage during that period as well.
That means a lot of rebounds are up for grabs in Mavs games, and surprise, surprise, Dallas ranks dead last in opponent rebounds per game since the break.
Tonight, the Mavericks will visit in-state rivals the San Antonio Spurs, who have dealt with their own injuries recently. But I think one of their replacement players can help us out tonight.
The Spurs signed Bismack Biyombo right before the All-Star break and it turns out they needed him more than they knew, following Victor Wembanyama’s rare blood clot that will keep him out for the remainder of the season.
Biyombo is averaging 6.8 rebounds per game over his last eight games, so it’s not surprising that his rebounding total is at 6.5. But it’s kind of been all or nothing with him. He’s only gone Over this number three times in his last eight games but has 10+ boards in those games he went Over.
Those games were against the New Orleans Pelicans and Brooklyn Nets, two other teams that struggle with rebounding. I’ll take Over 6.5 boards for Biyombo tonight and 10+ at +375 is intriguing in this matchup.
Moses Moody Over 11.5 points (-120 at bet365)
The Golden State Warriors are finding their groove with Jimmy Butler winning nine of their last 10 and the last four in a row. Steph Curry going nuclear sure helps. But the Warriors are winning because they're getting contributions all over the court, and I’m betting that will continue tonight when the Dubs host the Portland Trail Blazers.
One of the guys doing that is Moses Moody. The 22-year-old is already in his fourth season with the Warriors but looks like he is really breaking out this year.
Moody is averaging 9.6 points per game while shooting 38.3% from 3-point range this season, but he’s taken his game to the next level. He has upped his production to 12.0 points per game over his last 20 games and has started 12 of those games. He’s also put up 14.6 points per game in his last five games at home.
Tonight, he faces the Trail Blazers with a points prop sitting at 11.5. Now, they've been better defense lately, but they still struggle to contain opposing shooting guards, allowing the highest field goal percentage this season.
Portland also plays at a high tempo, which should lead to more possessions for the Warriors.
Moody has topped this number in 12 of his last 20 games and put up 15 in his lone meeting with the Blazers earlier in the season. It doesn’t hurt that our Covers Prop Projections have Moody set at 15.3 points for this matchup.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game NBA moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your team goes up by 20+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
