Best NBA Player Props Today: Reid Steps Up in Sweep Opportunity

Prop bet #1: Gafford Under 5.5 rebounds

Projections may suggest this prop should be set at 6.5, but those are heavily based on the Dallas Mavericks’ usual pace. In the final six weeks of the regular season, they ranked No. 8 in pace, averaging 99.7 possessions per game. In this series, that has fallen off to 91.5.

That is playoff basketball. Tensions rise, defense escalates, and games slow down.

That is part of why Gafford has totaled five rebounds in this series. He found at least six in only four of his last 10 regular-season games, and, again, those included a more frenetic pace and thus more chances to secure boards.

The pace is more to blame for fading these Daniel Gafford odds this afternoon than any doubt in Gafford is.

Daniel Gafford prop: Under 5.5 rebounds (-124 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Middleton Under 26.5 points

Khris Middleton has not looked enough like himself since his return from injury in mid-March to justify believing a Game 4 outburst is on its way. In 12 games to close the season, Middleton averaged 16 points on 51.4% shooting, the guard picking his moments in part because he had Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard to rely on. That was the design of the Milwaukee Bucks’ roster.

He did pour in 42 in Friday’s overtime loss and did so relatively efficiently, but that has been the only time in now 15 games in which Middleton scored 25 or more points. And he had Lillard demanding much of Indiana’s attention.

Without Lillard taking 20 shots and dishing out eight assists, the Pacers will focus their defense on Middleton. He would need to rekindle his prime to keep the Bucks engaged this evening. And the lack of 25-point games since mid-March makes it clear Middleton is past his prime at 32 and with myriad knee injuries in the last few years.

It was only logical to inflate Middleton’s points prop because Lillard is out with an Achilles injury, but it is also only logical to doubt Middleton will take 29 shots again, even without Milwaukee’s two bigger stars. He has taken more than 16 shots only one other time in the 14 preceding games. Scoring 27 points on 16 shots would be a bit of a shock and a reason why I'm fading these Khris Middleton odds.

Khris Middleton prop: Under 26.5 points (-113 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Reid Over 9.5 points

First of all, the Naz Reid odds for 8.5 points are juiced to the Over in the -125 to -135 range. Getting more than 30 cents of value for one point is worthwhile. 

Reid has scored in double digits twice in this series, even though he's shot relatively poorly, at least by his standards. Going 4 of 14 from deep (28.6%) is a small enough sample size not to fret over, even as it is wildly below his 42.4% in the regular season’s final five weeks.

The Phoenix Suns need to try something different tonight. Their season is effectively over, but until it is literally so, they need to get creative. The obvious adjustment they have not implemented yet would be to play more minutes with Kevin Durant at the five.

Reid should feast against those lineups because he is too big for any small-ball lineup to successfully defend him. Anytime he gets a step on a defender, be it in transition, off a screen, or off a pump fake, Reid will drive into the line and be able to shoot runners and layups over those smaller defenders.

Reid scored 13 points in just 18 minutes on Friday night. He doesn't need much time to put up points, but if the Suns try a smaller lineup, Reid should get more time simply because he will be more effective offensively against those lineups than either Karl-Anthony Towns or Rudy Gobert will be.

Naz Reid prop: Over 9.5 points (+106 at FanDuel)