Suns vs Heat Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Phoenix Doesn't Need Nurkic's Offense

A pair of struggling teams with NBA Finals ambitions and completely contrasting styles square off on Monday, January 29.

The Miami Heat, still one of the league’s best defensive teams, have dropped a shocking six straight games. The Phoenix Suns, finally fielding all three of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal, have lost two in a row including a punishing defeat to the Magic just last night.

Both squads will look to end those losing skids tonight, with NBA odds favoring the home team who also has a rest advantage.

My NBA picks and predictions for Suns vs. Heat believe oddsmakers haven’t properly adjusted to the more limited offensive role that Jusuf Nurkic is playing now that the Suns' star trio is healthy.

Suns vs Heat odds

Suns vs Heat predictions

I was one of the many people who were openly skeptical when the Phoenix Suns traded Deandre Ayton for Jusuf Nurkic. It appears I’ll have to eat crow on that one.

Nurkic has more than held up his end of the bargain, with availability much better than his recent track record and a screening, rebounding, and passing game that has been a fairly seamless fit alongside the big three of Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal.

Some of the thinking behind that trade was based on what role would be left for Ayton on offense with the arrival of the new Big 3. Ayton was already displeased with his increasingly diminished role as the Suns got better and better, and they clearly thought it was untenable to ask Ayton to do orders of magnitude less on offense and still expect elite defensive effort.

Nurkic isn’t as talented as Ayton, but he is more malleable, if not in skill set necessarily, than in disposition. Nurkic consistently gives good effort and only rarely misses games. When Beal and Booker were missing time, he was called upon to increase his offensive usage and he did so competently.

Now that the Big 3 are all playing together consistently, Nurkic’s role has scaled down substantially. Nurk averaged 28 minutes per game and 9.8 field goal attempts through the first 36 games, down to 25 mpg on 5.4 FGA in the eight games since. These Jusuf Nurkic odds haven’t adjusted down enough to account for his new role.

It’s been 10 games since Nurkic had a game with double-digit shot attempts. He’s scored 11+ points just twice in that time and zero times in the last six games. It’s difficult to score more than 10 points without clearing that mark when his 3-point shooting is more of a novelty than a real threat and he’s also a miserable finisher for a big man. 

A thumb injury that saw him miss last night’s game against the Magic could further limit his touch around the rim. While there’s a chance he misses Monday’s game on a back-to-back, I expect him to suit up even if somewhat limited given the two-game skid. He was questionable ahead of Sunday’s game and ultimately a late scratch.

The Suns have also shown increasing willingness to go small and play without a traditional five at all, with Kevin Durant as the nominal center. As the Miami Heat are not equipped to punish the Suns for going with that strategy, I could see Nurkic playing even less than usual on Monday.

Then, there’s his opposing matchup at the five: Bam Adebayo, who is one of the NBA’s elite defenders at the center position as well as one of the most mobile.

As the Heat have serious holes on the perimeter the Suns can go after, I don’t see a game plan from Frank Vogel that emphasizes going to Nurkic in the post.

My best bet: Jusuf Nurkic Under 10.5 points (-115 at SIA)

Suns vs Heat same-game parlay

Jusuf Nurkic Under 10.5 points

Jusuf Nurkic Under 0.5 made threes

Suns +4

+310 at DraftKings

Doubling down on my best bet, I’m also taking the Under on Nurkic threes for the first two prongs of my same-game parlay. Nurkic hasn’t made a 3-pointer in eight straight games and has only attempted one over that span. 

Assuming he plays on Monday, he’ll still be suffering some lingering effects from his thumb injury, and that makes it highly unlikely he even attempts a long ball, let alone makes it.

For the final leg of my SGP, I like the value of the Suns covering at +4. Yes, the Suns have lost two in a row and they’re on a back-to-back, but it bears emphasizing how poorly the Heat have played recently.

Miami is 2-6 in their last eight games, including six straight losses. In those two weeks, they've been the worst team against the spread in the Association — and it isn’t close.

The Heat have underperformed the spread by a whopping 12.4 points per game in that time, per Cleaning the Glass, nearly double the second-worst team at -6.9.

They’ve also had little success playing with a rest advantage. They’re just 3-5 against the spread with an edge in rest this season.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Suns vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

The Heat opened as -3.5 home favorites, which quickly rose to as high as -4.5 at some sportsbooks.

Writing off the Heat during the regular season is a tradition as old as time, and historically it’s been one that has gone very poorly for those to do it, but there’s undeniably something wrong with the Heat, and I don’t think adding Terry Rozier is enough to cure what ails them.

The Suns have at least shown they can hit a high level of play against quality opposition, even at a rest disadvantage, they shouldn’t be underdogs at this level. Phoenix has too much firepower for the Heat to shut them down, and Miami’s offense hasn’t proven it’s capable of keeping pace with the high-scoring teams of the Association.

The total for Monday has come in between 229 and 229.5, splitting the difference between the defense-minded Heat and the score-first score-always Suns. 

This does seem a touch on the high side, however. Miami’s offense in this recent stretch is not just league-worst, it’s beyond putrid. Their points per 100 possessions in the last eight games is 105.8, 4.1 points worse than the Grizzlies over the same stretch who (respectfully) are not fielding a real team due to all their injuries.

The Suns' defense has also shown signs of life lately. They’re allowing just 114.6 points per 100 over their last seven games, a better-than-league average mark. Even accounting for fatigue, I have real doubts about Miami running up the score against Phoenix in any meaningful sense.

Suns vs Heat betting trend to know

The Heat are 3-5 ATS with a rest advantage this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Suns vs. Heat.

Suns vs Heat game info

Suns vs Heat latest injuries

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