The Oklahoma City Thunder’s rise to the top of the Western Conference has been driven in no small part by health. Before this week, MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had missed just one game this season. Rookie center Chet Holmgren has not missed any. Second-year swingman Jalen Williams has missed just eight games.
That bill is coming due, with a right quad injury sidelining Gilgeous-Alexander for three games this week, Williams joining him on the bench last night due to an ankle worry.
The duo’s been ruled out tonight, more than enough doubt to make the Thunder hefty NBA odds underdogs against the Boston Celtics. Our free NBA picks and predictions will focus on one exact schematic mismatch as we preview the Thunder vs. Celtics on Wednesday, April 3, with tip set for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Thunder vs Celtics predictions
My best bet: Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 made threes (-145 at bet365)
No aspect of tonight’s game in Boston should favor Oklahoma City. The Celtics are the better team, the best in the NBA. They are at home, and they have a significant rest advantage, given the Thunder are playing on the second night of a back-to-back and in their third game in four nights.
Oh, and Boston is healthier.
With neither Gilgeous-Alexander nor Williams returning to the Oklahoma City lineup, they're severely outclassed.
The Thunder need to win every game they can to stay in contention for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. All along, even with Joel Embiid’s return, beating the 76ers was more likely than winning tonight. If Oklahoma City could have maximized last night’s chances at a win, it would have but instead, had to scrap without its young stars.
That kind of fatigue and wear should show itself most against Boston’s ball-sharing offense, where the Celtics have a preference that will be well enjoyed against the Thunder.
Since March 1, Oklahoma City has given up looks from deep on 41.2% of opponents’ shots; No. 10 in the NBA. Nearly as concerning, opponents have made 36.5% of those 3-pointers, the 12th-highest opposing rate in the NBA.
Boston hears that thought, and the entire roster smiles. Since March 1, the Celtics have taken threes on 48.2% of their field goal attempts, far and away the highest rate in the NBA. They have made 41.5% of them, also No. 1.
No one on that roster heaves threes more often than Jayson Tatum, taking 7.9 per game since March 1, making 45.4% of them. He has hit at least a trio of triples in 10 of 15 games in that stretch. He should again tonight against a weary Thunder defense that simply will not be able to keep up with the Celtics’ ball movement.
Thunder vs Celtics same-game parlay
Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 made threes
Kristaps Porzingis Under 2.5 made threes
Celtics moneyline
If anyone on the Celtics roster should have a tougher look than usual at the hoop from long distance, it will be Kristaps Porzingis. Credit Chet Holmgren. His agile 7-foot-1 frame should limit Porzingis more than he is accustomed to, even if Porzingis stands 7-foot-2.
That will not be enough to create any thought of an upset here. The scheduling and injury disadvantages are too steep to put any faith in the Thunder.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Thunder vs Celtics odds and trends
Thunder vs Celtics live odds
Thunder vs Celtics opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City +8 (-110) | Boston -8 (-110)
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City +270 | Boston -340
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 (-110) | Under 227.5 (-110)
Thunder vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis
- Boston opened as an 8-point favorite before the line climbed to -9 on Wednesday morning, and then to -11 with SAQ and Williams officially ruled out. But the Celtics have been struggling to cover spreads of late, just 1-3 against the spread in the last week, with all three ATS losses as hefty double-digit favorites. Boston is ready for the playoffs, simply biding its time until then, not always finishing blowouts anymore or showing up against overmatched opponents.
- The total opened at 227.5 before climbing to 231.5 on Wednesday morning, perhaps an acknowledgement that fatigue impacts defense more than offense.
- Oddsmakers have caught up to Oklahoma City after it opened the season 38-22 ATS, going just 4-11 since March 3.
Thunder vs Celtics trend
Eight of Boston’s last 10 games have gone Over their totals, while four of Oklahoma City’s last five games have gone Over their pregame totals. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Celtics.
Thunder vs Celtics game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Wednesday, April 3, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
ESPN |
Not intended for use in MA.
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