The Minnesota Timberwolves losing to the Milwaukee Bucks last night while the Bucks were without both Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo was the type of loss that makes it clear a team is not a genuine contender. The Timberwolves have talent, but they are not a team that will put together a postseason run.
Then again, Minnesota was without three of its own top-seven. Whatever the excuse, do not expect an upset tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder. My Thunder vs. Timberwolves predictions side with the visiting favorites, in part because Minnesota has been so sluggish out of the gates lately. Find out my NBA picks for Thursday, February 13.
Thunder vs Timberwolves prediction
My best bet
Thunder 1H -4 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
The Minnesota Timberwolves have not covered a first-half spread this month, going 0-7 ATS out of the gates.
It has been a problem on the road, trailing by 22 at the half at Cleveland on Monday. It has been a problem at home, going 0-6 ATS in this stretch.
It has been a problem as a favorite, going 0-6 ATS before halftime in this stretch. It has been a problem as an underdog, last covering a first-half spread as an underdog on Jan. 25, going 0-2 ATS in the first two quarters since then.
It has been a problem with Mike Conley in the lineup, going 0-4 ATS in first halves this month with the veteran’s steady hand. It has been a problem without Conley in the lineup, going 0-3 ATS in the last three first halves while Conley attempts to get a finger straight. Literally, his finger is crooked after getting dislocated in a come-from behind victory against Houston last Thursday.
In this same stretch, OKC has gone 5-2 ATS in first halves. In fact, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been leading at halftime by more than the full-game spread in four games this month. There is a reason Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s stats are diminished by playing so few fourth quarters.
Do not overthink this. One of these teams fails to start games on time. While the Timberwolves are older than the Thunder, Minnesota begins games with a much more immature approach. Tonight’s tip may be at 7:40 local time, but the Timberwolves will not remember the game is being played until at least 8:15.
Thunder vs Timberwolves same-game parlay
Thunder 1H -4
Jaden McDaniels Under 5.5 rebounds
Jaden McDaniels Under 1.5 made threes
Jaden McDaniels has found a more aggressive approach that has improved his all-around game. In his last 12 games, he has been taking just 3.6 threes per game, making 1.4 of them (39.5%). He has also been grabbing 7.5 rebounds per game.
Before that shift, he was shooting 3.8 threes per game, making only 32.9% of them, while grabbing just 5.0 rebounds per game.
The clearest piece of the shift is he has stopped taking so many corner 3s. They are simply not his shot. That leads to more drives from McDaniels, which furthers an aggressive mentality.
Most of that will remain true tonight. But against Oklahoma City’s wings, McDaniels will struggle to thrive on the glass. It is simply a reality. He is usually a large wing or an athletic power forward. But against the Thunder, McDaniels will not be the same lineup variable. Oklahoma City is designed to counter such players.
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Thunder vs Timberwolves odds
Thunder vs Timberwolves live odds
Thunder vs Timberwolves opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -4.5 | Minnesota +4.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -190 | Minnesota +160
- Over/Under: Over 219.5 | Under 219.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Timberwolves spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder opened as mere 4.5-point favorites late on Wednesday, even after the Timberwolves had failed against a shorthanded Bucks rotation.
- The spread jumped to -6.5 by the end of Wednesday night and then rose to -8.5 before sunrise. Given Minnesota’s recent struggles and Oklahoma City’s overall dominance, this line made more sense.
- It has since settled at -7.5, perhaps a sign Conley will play through his finger injury tonight.
- The total opened at 219.5 and jumped to 222.5 late on Wednesday, then toggling between 222.5 and 222 on Thursday morning.
Thunder vs Timberwolves trend
Minnesota is 3-11-1 ATS at home this season when favored by two or fewer scores or as an underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Timberwolves.
How to watch Thunder vs Timberwolves
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
| Date | Thursday, 2-13-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, truTV, Max |
Thunder vs Timberwolves latest injuries
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