Timberwolves vs 76ers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Dominant Frontcourts Go Toe to Toe

For a couple of years there, people thought the NBA big man was dead. Now, the NBA MVP odds race is consistently dominated by them, including reigning MVP Joel Embiid. Embiid will lead the Philadelphia 76ers against perhaps the biggest team in the NBA on Wednesday, December 20 as they host the Minnesota Timberwolves. 

The Timberwolves are off to the best start in franchise history and lead the standings precisely because they doubled down on big ball by pairing Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns. But they haven’t had to deal with a player like Embiid yet and he poses a unique challenge with his size and skill, which may be why the Sixers are getting the benefit of the doubt in NBA odds.

My NBA picks and predictions for Timberwolves vs. 76ers believe Embiid will want to put his stamp on this game by showcasing his prowess as a rim protector.

Timberwolves vs 76ers odds

Timberwolves vs 76ers predictions

To my mind, Philadelphia 76ers star Joel Embiid is the MVP of the 2023-24 season so far. I have been blown away by his otherworldly scoring and his massive jump as a playmaker. But against the Minnesota Timberwolves, I believe Embiid will want to make a point about his defensive fortitude. 

Rudy Gobert is the runaway leader in the Defensive Player of the Year odds right now, while Joel trails players including Victor Wembanyama and Brook Lopez. I think a reevaluation of Embiid’s impact is due in short order, and I think he will be keen to begin that dialogue with a statement performance tonight.

We’ve also consistently seen that Embiid is motivated by end-of-season awards. He furiously chased the MVP the last four seasons before ultimately capturing the award last year. 

That’s not something I say in judgment. I think whatever motivates a player to consistently play at a Top-5 level year after year (which Joel has done) is perfectly valid. But it does make their behavior somewhat predictable by bettors, which is a valuable thing.

So, while I don’t think Embiid has a realistic shot at Defensive Player of the Year, I think it rankles him that he isn’t in the conversation. And frankly, it should. Embiid’s offensive jump this season has received the lion’s share of attention, but his recommitment on the defensive end on a nightly basis, particularly after the first five games or so, has been inspired.

Embiid is mobile, massive, and overwhelmingly strong. He has great foot speed and agility, and when he’s locked in, he’s a rim deterrent that only Gobert can truly rival. Per Cleaning the Glass, Embiid’s 2.7% block rate is his best number in six seasons, and he manages that while seldom fouling. He’s also averaging 2.4 blocks over his last 10 games.

Gobert’s presence is also a boon to Embiid’s chances on this prop for another reason. Rudy is not a player who can do much of anything with the ball in his hands. Admittedly, he’s a great lob threat, and the Wolves have been much better this year at leveraging his specific gravity out of that shot. But whenever he gets the ball in the post or is attacking the basket and has to take a dribble, it is an adventure. It’s equally easy to see Rudy wanting to make a point against Embiid as the opposite, and I think Joel will swat away at least one ill-fated Rudy attempt at the rim.

While I might not be prepared to back Embiid as a legitimate candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, I think these Joel Embiid odds for his matchup against Gobert are a strong value bet.

My best bet: Joel Embiid Over 1.5 blocks (-160 at bet365)

Timberwolves vs 76ers same-game parlay

Joel Embiid Over 1.5 blocks

Joel Embiid Over 33.5 points

Anthony Edwards Over 26.5 points

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+380 +570 at DraftKings

I was torn on my best bet today between Embiid’s blocks or points prop, so I’m leading off on my same-game parlay by backing both and finishing with Anthony Edwards to go Over 26.5 points.

There’s a good chance you’ve read by now, but Embiid is currently scoring more points than minutes played. Nobody since Wilt Chamberlain has scored at such a rate through 23 games of a season. Embiid is thriving in Nick Nurse’s new offense and is diversifying his shot diet while honing his old reliable from 12 feet out to a fine edge. 

Embiid is averaging 37.7 points over his last 10 games, and that’s while resting half or more of the fourth quarters in those games due to blowing the opposition out. While the Wolves defense is strong, I still think Joel is primed to get his buckets in this one.

For Ant’s piece, it seems ridiculous in hindsight that one of the major criticisms of him coming into the NBA was that he was an inconsistent jumper. Not only was he a decent jump shooter right away, but he’s shown strong development every season, not only in his numbers but in the types and difficulty of shots he can take and make. 

Edwards can shoot turning around with both shoulders, he can pull up in transition, and he uses the glass from 16 feet out.  He has a nearly bottomless bag. While the Gobert trade made life harder for Edwards in some ways, it also forced him to improve from the outside. 

Not to mention all the times a Gobert block leads directly to a fast break jam by Ant. Edwards missed a little time due to injury but has shaken off the rust with back-to-back games of over 30 points.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Timberwolves vs 76ers spread and Over/Under analysis

Philadelphia opened as a 3.5-point favorite against the Timberwolves, and that’s fallen just a half point to -3 at some sportsbooks. Both Philadelphia and Minnesota have been beating up on some weaker teams of late. The Wolves, however, are coming off an impressive come-from-behind victory against a healthy Miami Heat team while the 76ers just lost to the suddenly surging Chicago Bulls.

In terms of point differential, these are two of the three best teams in the NBA, with the Wolves lapping the field in defensive rating while the 76ers lead the overall pack by ranking first in offense and sixth in defense. 

In general, I favor the balanced team in matchups like this one, particularly when they have the best player on the court in Embiid. The 76ers are also 10-4 against the spread at home this season.

Wednesday’s total opened at 223.5 and has seen quite a bit of movement to as high as 226.5 at some sportsbooks. This figures to be a game won on the defensive end, and the Wolves have a habit of turning every game into a slog for the opposition.

Minnesota is the league’s best defense by any measure. The Wolves combine incredible size on the interior by starting two 7-footers Karl-Anthony Towns and Gobert with a bevy of strong perimeter defenders headlined by Jaden McDaniels and Edwards. 

They’re perhaps not the most versatile defense, as you only have so many options when you play two 7-foot-tall guys and bring in another giant off the bench in Naz Reid. But they’re so good nobody has been able to figure them out anyway.

While a quick guard like Tyrese Maxey seems as good a bet as any to take advantage of their drop defense, he’s also liable to get beat up by McDaniels, Edwards, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in the process. They’re also sound at avoiding fouls, a Philadelphia specialty. With a few points of movement from the opening number, I’d lean toward the Under at this price.

Timberwolves vs 76ers betting trend to know

The 76ers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. 76ers.

Timberwolves vs 76ers game info

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