Anthony Edwards has fallen short of his 3-pointer prop in three of his last four games, but that only creates value on the Minnesota Timberwolves superstar, even against the Los Angeles Clippers.
My Timberwolves vs. Clippers predictions will return to a profitable well, betting on Edwards to do his damage from deep. Somehow it seems free NBA picks have not discussed this trend enough.
Tip-off comes at 10:30 pm ET on Wednesday, December 4.
Timberwolves vs Clippers prediction
My best bet
Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 made threes (+120 at bet365)
My analysis
Don’t worry so much about Anthony Edwards falling short of his 3-pointers prop in three of his last four games. In two of them, the Minnesota Timberwolves forward would have cleared this particular number, going 4-of-9 in back-to-back games, one of them with that night’s prop at 4.5.
That was on November 27 against the Kings. Two nights later, Edwards’s 3-pointer prop was back down to 3.5 against these very same Los Angeles Clippers. His 4-of-9 cashed the Over, and it furthered a 2024 sensation.
Edwards has now hit the Over on his threes prop in 13 of 20 games this season, netting +4.57 units if you were taking the better odds each night from one of the two most common sportsbooks in the United States.
The Minnesota superstar's shot distribution has not changed enough recently to spark worry. He may be missing a couple more threes of late — even with that worry, Edwards has hit 34.3% of his threes in this four-game pseudo-slump — but he is still taking them more often when he shoots. Of Edwards’s field-goal attempts in this stretch, 43.75% of them have been from deep.
That is a tick downward compared to the first 16 games of the season (53.1%), but it is still notably higher than last year’s 37.5% of his field-goal attempts.
This season’s logic is rather simple: When Edwards’s 3-pointer prop is offered at plus money, take it. He is shooting 42.3% from deep on 51.3% of his field-goal attempts. A four-game slump is not enough reason to scare us off this logic.
He took nine 3-pointers on 21 field-goal attempts against the Clippers last week. They excel at perimeter defense, but anytime Edwards takes nine attempts from deep, he is more likely to make at least four.
This should not be plus-money. Take it while it is.
Timberwolves vs Clippers same-game parlay
Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 threes
Timberwolves -3
Clippers team total Under 105.5
Just last week, Minnesota was a 6.5-point home favorite against the Clippers. Homecourt advantage alone would have logically knocked this spread down to -2 or so. Why hold at -3?
For one thing, an already-thin Los Angeles roster is only thinner, as Terance Mann has been ruled out with a hand injury. For another, the Clippers played last night.
This is not a roster eliciting trust on a back-to-back, even if Los Angeles has covered the spread in four straight and nine of its last 10 games. That fatigue, along with Minnesota’s recently-renewed defense, lends credibility to taking the Clippers’ team total Under, as well.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Timberwolves vs Clippers odds
Timberwolves vs Clippers live odds
Timberwolves vs Clippers opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -3.5 | Los Angeles +3.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -160 | Los Angeles +135
- Over/Under: Over 210.5 | Under 210.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Timberwolves vs Clippers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened as a 3.5-point favorite on Tuesday, but the overnight knocked this spread as low as -2.5, rallying to -3 mid-morning.
- This total opened at 210.5 and climbed to 212 in Wednesday’s earliest hours before falling to 211 by sunrise.
- The total then jumped all morning, peaking at 214 mid-afternoon.
- Ascribe that climb to doubt in Los Angeles’s legs.
Timberwolves vs Clippers trend
Minnesota’s last two games and four of its last six have cashed the Under. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Clippers.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Clippers
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-4-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSN North, ClipperVision |
Timberwolves vs Clippers latest injuries
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