This may be the biggest remaining game of the NBA season. Well, at least for two weeks, until the Minnesota Timberwolves head back to face the Denver Nuggets. The remaining two head-to-head matchups between the Top 2 teams in the Western Conference should determine who finishes atop the West and who finishes second, if not third given how closely the Thunder loom.
Both Minnesota and Denver know what is at stake tonight, and given those bigger-picture concerns, perhaps this three-bucket NBA odds spread is too lofty.
The tension and a slight advantage in rest sway our free NBA picks and predictions as we preview the Timberwolves vs. Nuggets on Friday, March 29, with tip set for 9:00 ET.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets predictions
My best bet: Timberwolves +7 (-110 at FanDuel)
These two match up well. Anyone who loves competitive basketball should hope they meet late in the playoffs. The Timberwolves are the rare team that can throw size at Nikola Jokic, not stopping him but at least slowing him. And Anthony Edwards fancies himself an equal shot-maker to Jamal Murray, not yet a reality, but also not far from it.
Even when they don’t match up well, they match up well. On March 19, Minnesota was a 7.5-point underdog at home against the Nuggets despite not having any true NBA center available, and lost at the horn when a 3-pointer from Edwards clanged off the rim rather than sending the game to overtime.
Now, the Timberwolves are 7-point underdogs on the road. Walk through the differences between the two games, and the minimal move in the spread makes sense. But understanding that then leads to finding value.
The change in venue swings the spread by about five points, raising our expected spread to +12.5.
But both Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid were sidelined on March 19. No offense to Luka Garza, but he is not an NBA center, and his porous defense keeps him from being a rotation player. The Timberwolves were facing the best big man in the NBA without a genuine big man of their own.
Because of his defensive influence, Gobert’s absence can move a spread by two points. If that sounds lofty, understand Minnesota’s net rating falls 3.3 points without Gobert.
Because of the interior vacuum created by his neck injury, Reid altered that spread by a point, as well. Normally, the sharpshooter hardly impacts a spread, but the void at an entire position amplified his absence. Returning the two big men to the Timberwolves’ lineup lowers our expected spread to +9.5.
Minnesota was at a significant rest disadvantage on March 19, on the second night of a back-to-back that involved travel and playing its third game in four nights. That detriment added two points to the March 19 spread, so taking them off tonight’s gets us to +7.5.
On paper, the Timberwolves actually have a slight rest edge tonight. Only a slight one, but enough of one to argue for the spread to fall to +7, which is where we are.
That was on paper. In reality, Minnesota has more of an edge than the schedule shows. The Timberwolves blew out the Pistons on Wednesday, while the Nuggets lost a close game to the Suns. Only one of Minnesota’s top-seven players logged more than 30 minutes, Gobert at 34. With Murray nursing some right knee inflammation, four of Denver’s starters played more than 30 minutes, including Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at 36, and Jokic at 41.
The Nuggets are not a deep team. The scheduling disadvantage combined with Wednesday’s workload will amplify that weakness tonight in a way that does not show up in this spread adjustment. Minnesota should be a six-point underdog, not +7.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Timberwolves +7
Under 213
Rudy Gobert Over 12.5 rebounds
Every step of this same-game parlay is a bet on Denver fatigue. Shortening the game and relying on Jokic and Murray in clutch time should be enough to get a win.
In that same vein, Jokic may preserve some energy in the first three quarters by not scrapping for as many rebounds. If so, that will be to Gobert’s benefit more than anybody else’s.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets odds and trends
Timberwolves vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +6 (-106) | Denver -6 (-114)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +215 | Denver -260
- Over/Under: Over 214.5 (-110) | Under 214.5 (-110)
Timberwolves vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread opened with Denver at -6.5 or -6 on Thursday night, climbing to -7.5 at some books before settling at -7.
- The Nuggets' surge since the All-Star Break, going 15-3 outright, initially included success against the spread, as well, going 9-3 before falling short of expectations in four of their last six games.
- Denver is a decidedly Under team this season, with 43 of 73 games this season falling short of their totals with one push.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets betting trend to know
Minnesota has gone 5-1 against the spread vs. Denver in the last two regular seasons, exceeding expectations by an average of 7.6 points even when including that ATS loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets game info
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Friday, March 29, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Altitude, Bally North |
Not intended for use in MA.
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