Timberwolves vs Thunder Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Top West Dogs Clash in OKC

In the preseason, no one circled tonight’s matchup between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Oklahoma City Thunder as a possible determining moment in the race for the Western Conference’s top seed, but that has become the reality.

The two are tied in winning percentage more than halfway through the season, with the Thunder currently up one game in their head-to-head matchups.

However, a Timberwolves win tonight would even that tiebreaker and set Minnesota on a path to probably edge out Oklahoma City via division winning percentage.

Then again, a Timberwolves win tonight would require Minnesota to shirk the fourth-quarter malaise that has shown up in four of its last five games, leading to three losses.

Those clutch-moment worries should dictate tonight’s approach in our free NBA picks as we preview Timberwolves vs. Thunder on January 29, with tip set for 8:00 p.m. ET.

Timberwolves vs Thunder odds

Timberwolves vs Thunder predictions

The Minnesota Timberwolves have a problem on their hands right now, one that began against these Oklahoma City Thunder.

Just nine days ago, Minnesota led OKC by nine points with 6:27 left in a defensive slugfest. The Timberwolves then proceeded to be outscored 23-9. The collapse was reminiscent of the 2022 playoffs when the Grizzlies would reel off 20 points in a row at Minnesota.

In the last week, Minnesota has been outscored in all four fourth quarters, 36-18 by Charlotte, 29-28 by Washington, 20-15 by Brooklyn, and 33-22 by San Antonio. The Timberwolves might be the worst late-game team in the NBA right now, despite being one of the best teams overall.

Some of the woes are tied to Mike Conley’s absence in three of the five games, but the initial struggles against the Thunder and the putrid fourth-quarter offense in the Barclays Center both came with Conley in the lineup.

Go back further and these issues are more fundamental. Since Christmas, Anthony Edwards is 7-for-19 from the field in clutch time and Karl-Anthony Towns is 6-for-18.

Both those percentages were boosted on Saturday night in San Antonio, the pair combining to go 5-for-7 for 13 points, but they each turned over the ball in costly moments to spur the Spurs to an upset. They lead one of the worst clutch-time offenses in the NBA.

Meanwhile, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the NBA’s most clutch players. He ranks behind only Steph Cury and Nikola Jokic in points scored per 100 possessions of clutch time (games within five points in the final five minutes), minimum of 16 games of such worries. OKC’s MVP candidate shoots 61% from the floor in those chances, scoring 50 points per 100 possessions.

To give that some quick context, NBA scoring leader Joel Embiid is averaging 50.1 points per 100 possessions this season. In the last five minutes of a close game, SGA becomes as offensively effective as Embiid usually is.

Clearly, the Thunder should be given the edge late tonight. How to best exploit that edge? Find the value. And the value comes in trusting Minnesota early. The Timberwolves led at halftime in three of their last five games, the two exceptions each coming by one bucket.

With NBA odds keeping this spread within a bucket, expecting a small first-half lead to flip in the second half is hardly shocking. That is simply a close basketball game. Yet, it can pay out at 5-to-1.

My best bet: Timberwolves first-half moneyline + Thunder moneyline (+500 at DraftKings)

Timberwolves vs Thunder same-game parlay

Timberwolves first-half moneyline

Thunder moneyline

Under 224

Anthony Edwards Over 27.5 points

+1,900 at DraftKings

When Minnesota went to Oklahoma City on Dec. 26, some version of a Christmas hangover applied to the early action. Remove those first three quarters, when the game had reached 102-91, and the other nine quarters between these two this season have averaged exactly 50 points.

That is hardly surprising, these are two of the four best defensive ratings in the NBA this season. And the possible postseason implications of this game should slow it down further.

Yet Edwards will score. Those closing moments of the fourth quarter in San Antonio on Saturday underscored Edwards’ need to develop consistency if Minnesota is going to enjoy this spring.

He's averaged 31.3 points in the last three games, outliers in that they were bad opponents but notable in that the Timberwolves needed those points. Not to mention, Edwards still has an All-Star berth to secure, and one-upping Gilgeous-Alexander would go a long way.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Timberwolves vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has held steady with Oklahoma City favored by 2.5 points despite the Thunder losing to the Pistons on Sunday afternoon.

Those losses happen. Minnesota knows that better than anyone right now. No other worry needs to be ascribed to Oklahoma City laying an egg at Detroit. Even against that historically bad team, this is the NBA. These surprises occur regularly.

The total has fallen a bit, opening at 226.5 at most books before dropping to 224 or 224.5 by Monday morning. Again, these are two of the best defenses in the NBA led by multiple players worthy of making the NBA’s All-Defensive team.

Timberwolves vs Thunder betting trend to know

Minnesota’s fourth-quarter collapses have contributed to the Under cashing in four of those last five games. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Thunder.

Timberwolves vs Thunder game info

Timberwolves vs Thunder latest injuries

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