The Sun Belt Conference automatic bid is on the line when the Arkansas State Red Wolves meet the Troy Trojans at Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, Florida.
The two squads split their season series, and my Arkansas State vs. Troy predictions expect the Red Wolves to triumph tonight.
Read on for my college basketball picks for Monday, March 10.
Arkansas State vs Troy prediction
Who will win Arkansas State vs Troy?
I like Arkansas State to win this game. The Red Wolves are the more talented offensive group with exploitable mismatches on both ends of the floor and a +5-point differential in their season series.
My best bet
Arkansas State moneyline (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
The Arkansas State Red Wolves and Troy Trojans battle for the right to hear their name called on Selection Sunday.
These teams have met twice this season, fighting brutal battles and splitting a series where neither could hold serve at home.
It's only fitting that these teams will tussle for all the marbles on a neutral court, and I like Arkansas State to come out on top.
The Red Wolves averaged 77 points in the two games with Troy because they crash the offensive glass, are tidy and generous with the rock, get to the free-throw line, and can make the triple.
Arkansas State forward Izaiyah Nelson recorded a monster double-double in the last meeting, and the Red Wolves will send four on the floor tonight, averaging double-digits the Trojans' defense could not easily contain in either meeting.
The Trojans have some offensive firepower, but it's hard to see them repeating the 35% they made from downtown on Sunday against James Madison when they only made 29% of those attempts during the regular season.
In their previous meeting, the Red Wolves held Troy to under 30% shooting from downtown, and they have the length to stymie the hotter-than-normal Trojans again.
I’m betting they do, which should lead to a hard-fought victory.
Arkansas State vs Troy same-game parlay (SGP)
Arkansas State moneyline
Arkansas State 1H team total Under 34.5
Under 142.5
Nerves could get the better of an Arkansas State squad averaging 39 first-half points in its previous three.
Arkansas State will launch the triple. Jitters or a Troy defense allowing a measly 22 points per first half across its last three will slow the Red Wolves early.
Troy will be nervous, too. Its average of 36 first-stanza points over the past three games suggests a low-scoring first half.
That should lead to a lower-scoring game, so I selected the ALT total of Under 142.5 for the third leg.
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Arkansas State vs Troy odds
Arkansas State vs Troy live odds
Arkansas State vs Troy opening odds
- Spread: Arkansas State -1.5 (-110) | Troy +1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Arkansas State -125 | Troy +105
- Over/Under: Over 138.5 (-110) | Under 138.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arkansas State vs Troy betting trend to know
Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 37 games (+17.25 Units / 7% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas State vs. Troy.
How to watch Arkansas State vs Troy
| Location | Pensacola Bay Center, Pensacola, FL |
| Date | Monday, 3-10-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Arkansas State vs Troy key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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