Auburn vs Tennessee Odds, Picks and Predictions: Vols and Tigers Keep Each Other in Check

The college basketball betting board for Wednesday is headlined by a clash between national title contenders as the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers host the the No. 4 Auburn Tigers. The Tigers have owned this conference rivalry lately, going 7-2 straight up and 8-1 against the spread in the last nine meetings.

However, this is a different year. Not only are the Volunteers tied for first in the SEC with an 11-3 record, they've been dominant at home. With that in mind, college basketball odds have Tennessee as a 6.5-point favorite for this clash with the Over/Under at 152.5.

Here are my free college basketball picks for Auburn vs. Tennessee on Wednesday, February 28.

Auburn vs Tennessee best odds

Auburn vs Tennessee picks and predictions

The big question mark for the Auburn Tigers is the status of forward Jaylin Williams, who will be a game-time decision due to a knee injury. Williams is second on the team with 13.0 points per game on 58/41/81 shooting splits, and his ability to stretch the floor is an immense help to an Auburn squad that can have spacing issues.

It's a good sign Auburn was able to score 97 points on the road against Georgia without Williams in its last game, but facing a Tennessee Volunteers squad that is second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency will be a much tougher challenge.

The Tigers are fifth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency themselves. While they are also efficient on offense, they don't have the outside shooting to unlock this Tennessee D, and they've been reliant on their transition offense while the Vols do an excellent job of limiting fast-break opportunities.

Auburn is first in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage (43.5%) while Tennessee is third (44.2%) and the Vols have been even stingier at home holding foes to a 40 EFG%.

In addition, Auburn, like most schools, has a drop-off in offensive production on the road and has been held to 65 points or fewer in away games against Florida, Mississippi State, and even Appalachian State. In Tuscaloosa vs. Alabama last month, the Tigers were limited to 42% shooting and scored 75 points only because of the blazing-fast tempo in that contest. 

Both defenses also do a good job of slowing down opponents with Tennessee 342nd in average possession length on defense (18.4 seconds) and Auburn 288th (17.9 seconds). Combine that with the fact both teams are in the Top 30 in turnover rate, and I'm expecting these offenses to take their time in the half court while probing for scoring opportunities. 

The O/U for this contest is currently at 152.5 with KenPom and Bart Torvik projecting a total of 149, while the ShotQualityBets model has a total of 146.5. With how dominant both teams are defensively and the intensity I expect to see in a game of this magnitude, I'd be betting the Under even if Williams was playing. If he doesn't suit up, the Under becomes an absolute bargain.

My best bet: Under 152.5 (-110 at bet365)

Auburn vs Tennessee same-game parlay

Under 152.5

Tennessee first half moneyline

Zakai Zeigler Under 1.5 made threes

+475 at bet365

I'm reluctant to lay this many points on the Vols in what could be an extremely competitive game (especially if Williams plays). However, I do think Tennessee's home-court advantage should result in a first-half lead. Keep in mind the Vols are 13-1 at home with an average scoring margin of +14.7 ppg. 

They've also covered the first half spread in 15 of their last 20 home games while Auburn has looked vulnerable on the road. The Tigers trailed at halftime on the road against Mississippi and App State and were down by double digits against Alabama and Florida. They also scored a paltry 21 points in the first half in an away contest against Mississippi State. 

Tennessee's Zakai Zeigler is a terrific passer who has displayed improved shooting this season. That said, his 3-point percentage still sits at a modest 35% and he's knocked down fewer than two treys in six of his last 12 games.

The Under 1.5 three-pointers made for Zeigler is priced at +135, which is terrific value when you consider Auburn is 12th in the country in opponent 3PT% (29.6%) and 31st in 3-pointers allowed per game (6.0).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Auburn vs Tennessee spread and Over/Under analysis

This line hit the board with the Vols at -6.5 and the total at 150.5. Early money came in on the Tigers and the Over, slimming the line to -5.5 and shifting the O/U to 152.5. However, buyback has come in on both the side and the total and as of 10 a.m. ET, the spread is back to -6.5 while the total is starting to tick down to 151.5 at some books. 

Auburn and Tennessee are two of just five teams in the country that rank in the Top 20 on KenPom on both offense and defense.

The Vols are coming off an 86-51 rout of Texas A&M which was a revenge game since they were upset by the Aggies earlier this month. That was their only loss in their last seven games and they've gone 5-2 ATS during that span. 

The Tigers have been one of the best teams to bet on in the country going 17-6-2 ATS in their last 25 games. That said, they've been inconsistent over their last four games losing by double digits to Florida and Kentucky although they bounced back both times with dominant victories against South Carolina and Georgia. 

Auburn vs Tennessee betting trend to know

The Under is 6-2 in Auburn's eight road games this season while going 6-3-1 in Tennessee's previous 10 contests at home. Find more college basketball betting trends for Auburn vs. Tennessee.

Auburn vs Tennessee game info

Auburn vs Tennessee key injuries

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