College basketball odds are a funny market.
While the popularity of NCAA hoops has expanded in recent seasons, there are still college basketball picks most casual fans ignore for four months of the year.
It’s not until the calendar flips to March Madness odds that those everyday bettors start to pay attention to the college kids.
And where will those fair-weather fans look when placing their first NCAA basketball bets of the season? The ATS standings, of course.
A program’s success against the spread is a strange stat to put a lot of weight into, as those results are impacted by the market’s perception of a team rather than giving a true testament to how good or bad they really are. However, it does tell you who’s playing above and below expectations.
Since March is upon us, it’s time to check in on those teams consistently covering the college basketball spreads. And since there are just a handful of games left in conference play, I’m going to stick to only programs projected to fill out the field of 68 for the Big Dance.
Sorry Minnesota (24-4 ATS), it’s been real.
Best ATS bets ahead of March Madness
- Richmond Spiders
- South Florida Bulls
- South Carolina Gamecocks
- Iowa State Cyclones
- Nevada Wolf Pack
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Top 5 Tournament-Bound ATS Bets
Richmond Spiders (20-7-1 ATS)
In almost every tournament, we get a No. 12 seed taking down a No. 5. The Richmond Spiders could very well be that No. 12 seed.
Richmond sits 26th in KenPom’s all-powerful defensive efficiency metric, allowing only 65.8 points per game. That’s helped them build an average margin of more than seven points per game.
The windfall started back in November with a 5-2 ATS mark in November and peaked during an eight-game ATS run to start 2024. However, Richmond has gone 4-3 ATS in the last seven games, with spreads ticking up to -5 or higher compared to shorter lines earlier in A-10 play.
The Spiders have been at their best as favorites (13-3 ATS), but as a potential No. 12 seed, they'll likely see short spreads as an underdog come the NCAA Tournament. Richmond is 7-4-1 ATS as a pup, as well as 9-4-2 ATS away from home thanks to a defense that travels well (+2.5 margin on the road).
South Florida Bulls (17-6-3 ATS)
The South Florida Bulls are the class of the AAC, not only sitting atop the conference standings but pumping out the fourth-highest ATS win percentage in the country. Most NCAA models have USF scoring a No. 11 seed in the Big Dance.
The Bulls actually started the season on a 2-4 ATS stumble but caught fire once conference play tipped off, including a 10-0-3 ATS stretch between Jan. 4 and Feb. 18. South Florida is a remarkable 12-3-1 ATS at home, where it boasts an average margin of more than 10 points, but is just 4-3-2 ATS in true road games (-0.1 average margin).
What’s fueled the Bulls’ bankroll-building play? It’s tough to pinpoint. South Florida is solid defensively, allowing less than 69 points per home game, and ranks 78th in efficiency — which is tops in the AAC.
Honestly, it comes down to the fact that the American Athletic Conference is just crappy this year, with only two teams projected to make the Field of 68. That could be why USF is 11-1-3 ATS against AAC foes and just 6-5 ATS in non-conference competition.
Keep that in mind come tourney time.
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South Carolina Gamecocks (20-8 ATS)
The South Carolina Gamecocks made hay in non-conference play with a 10-3 ATS mark versus non-SEC foes. They've kept that money-making momentum in conference play, with a 10-5 ATS clip heading into this weekend and a projected No. 6 seed in the tournament.
South Carolina sits third in the SEC but isn’t as public a play as some of its conference competition, like Tennessee, Kentucky, Florida, and Auburn. The Gamecocks have been underdogs in 10 of their 15 SEC games, making the most of those points with an 8-2 ATS count as a conference pup. Overall, USC is 11-2 ATS as an underdog this season.
The Gamecocks are a solid two-way team and have a very strong defense that ranks 42nd in defensive efficiency and gives up just over 65 points per game. However, the offense isn’t as consistent, leaning heavily into the 3-pointer as the weapon of choice. When those triples don’t fall, the Cocks are in trouble.
The betting results have been mixed the past two weeks, with South Carolina splitting its last six games ATS. The Gamecocks were a combined 18 for 62 from 3-point range in those ATS losses.
Iowa State Cyclones (18-8-2 ATS)
There are plenty of ho-hum teams who happen to be good bets, and there are bad teams that provide value given their inflated spreads. The Iowa State Cyclones are a rare great team that has also been a great bet, second in the Big 12 and on pace for a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
The non-conference calendar was a mixed bag for ISU backers, with the Cyclones facing some beefy spreads in the high-20’s and 30’s, leading to a respectable 9-4 ATS count. But once Big 12 action tipped off, Iowa State started stacking the chips with a 10-4-1 ATS mark versus conference competition heading into this weekend.
The Cyclones sit No. 2 in defensive efficiency — a telling stat for Final Four contenders — throwing 40 hard minutes at opponents with in-your-shorts pressure that causes all kinds of chaos. Iowa State drags opponents deep into the shot clock and forces more than 17 turnovers per game, which results in easy transition buckets on the other end.
But, when ISU does face a controlled team that doesn’t cough it up, the offense can struggle in the halfcourt. Mind the matchups come tourney time to see which ISU opponents will get sucked into the cyclone.
Nevada Wolf Pack (19-9 ATS)
It seems only fitting that one of the best bets in college hoops would hail from the state that started this whole legal sports betting thing.
The Nevada Wolf Pack's tournament future is a bit foggy, depending on which “Bracketologist” you trust. Some forecasts have the Wolf Pack earning a No. 7 seed while others have them squeaking in as a No. 10.
As it stands, Nevada is fourth in the Mountain West but No. 1 in the hearts of bettors, who are currently enjoying a four-game ATS run from the Wolf Pack. In fact, they’ve failed to cover the spread just once in the eight games heading into tonight’s game with Fresno State.
Nevada’s ATS profits going back to non-conference play. It started the year with a 10-3 ATS record in non-MWC contests, including a clean sweep SU and ATS, en route to a Diamond Head Classic tournament title just before Christmas.
The Wolf Pack run a methodical tempo on offense, which in turn helps the defense limit opponents’ possessions. They’re 37th in defensive efficiency and give up just under 67 points on a 48% effective field goal rate allowed.
Nevada’s success going forward — ATS or outright — is in danger, however. Top offensive weapon Kenan Blackshear (15.2 ppg) is dealing with an ankle injury late in the season. Not what you want given the grind of the MWC Tournament and NCAA Tournament ahead.
March Madness odds
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