Colorado vs USC Odds, Picks and Predictions: Buffs Have the Stuff on Road (Finally)

It’s difficult to make the NCAA Tournament if you can’t win any road games. 

That’s exactly the case that Tad Boyle must be pleading to his team as the Colorado Buffaloes are at least a Top-40 team by most metrics but could be on the wrong side of the bubble thanks largely to a 1-7 record in away games. 

They’ll look to snare an elusive road victory on Saturday at the Galen Center against the struggling USC Trojans.

Glancing at college basketball odds, the Buffaloes are narrowly favored to pick up the road win at -1.5 while the total resides at 149.5. 

Is this the time to buy low on Colorado on the road, or is the proof in the pudding by now? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Colorado vs. USC on Saturday, February 17 to find out. 

Colorado vs USC best odds

Colorado vs USC picks and predictions

The Colorado Buffaloes have some work to do if they wish to go dancing. Bracket Matrix lists the Buffs as outside the NCAA Tournament field while ESPN’s Joe Lunardi lists them as one of the “Next Four Out”. 

It has to be frustrating for head coach Tad Boyle, who leads a roster as talented as any in the Pac-12 and with enough experience to seemingly make some national noise. Alas, the Buffs have had a difficult enough time making their presence known in conference play alone thanks to an inability to win away from home. They’re just 1-7 in away games overall, including a 1-6 record in conference away games. 

Their opponents on Saturday are the USC Trojans, a team in complete freefall. Tommy Trojan made the NCAA Tournament in each of the last three seasons under Andy Enfield but has fallen on rough times with two wins in its last 10 games. 

USC has fallen outside of KenPom’s Top 100, entering this matchup 103rd overall. The Trojans aren’t scary on offense (112th in adjusted efficiency) and don’t lock down on defense (111th). 

That’s a stark contrast to Colorado, who has been an analytical darling for much of the year. Thursday’s 64-60 loss to UCLA dropped the Buffs down to 37th in KenPom (27th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 66th in adjusted defensive efficiency), which still gives them a huge leg up over the Trojans. 

This is close to a must-win game for the Buffs, and they know it. It may sound crazy to say that at this point in the season, but there are only so many chances to redeem this resume, and another ugly road loss, this time at the hands of a bad Trojans team, would do some serious dances to their chances of going dancing. 

I think Boyle will have his team ready. They didn’t play poorly on Thursday despite the loss, shooting 52.2% from the field against a stout UCLA defense while holding the Bruins to 44.4% shooting. They coughed the ball up too many times, however, losing the turnover battle 14-5. 

I’m not very concerned with the loss — UCLA is streaking with eight wins in its last nine games and the lone loss was to Arizona, whereas USC hasn’t been able to buy a win. I see no reason why this line (Colorado -1.5) is the same as Thursday’s game, when I had a bet on UCLA — the Bruins are a much better team than USC right now. 

This Colorado team is well-coached with veterans up and down the lineup and has a talent advantage, which is a rare case for a USC opponent despite the brutal record. 

Lead guard KJ Simpson (18.8 ppg) won’t stay down long after a poor showing against UCLA. Tristan da Silva (15.5 ppg) is arguably the most complete player in the conference. Freshman Cody Williams (14.3 ppg) is a likely NBA lottery pick and continues to gain confidence and improve as the season goes along as evidenced by his 18-point showing against the Bruins on 8-of-9 shooting. 

The Buffs shoot better, are better overall on both offense and defense, are more talented, are better coached, and have more motivation in this spot. If that’s not enough to overlook their poor away record then I don’t know what is. Give me Colorado. 

My best bet: Colorado -1.5 (-110 at bet365)

Colorado vs USC same-game parlay

Colorado -1.5 

KJ Simpson Over 18.5 points 

Isaiah Collier Over 15.5 points 

20% boost available

+480 +576 at DraftKings

Let’s pair this Colorado ATS pick with two player props to create a three-leg SGP.

Simpson’s point prop is listed at 18.5 — a number that he’s exceeded in 14 of 25 games this year, including three of his last five. USC is nothing special defensively and is prone to giving up the deep ball, sporting the 336th-ranked 3-point defense (36.3%) while allowing opponents to hit 8.7 threes per game (327th). 

Simpson is a 42.6% shooter from downtown and can score in a variety of ways, so I expect a quick bounce-back after he scored just four points against UCLA and view this as a buy-low opportunity. 

Isaiah Collier is a five-star freshman who is the best player on USC. He excels at getting to the cup using his combination his elite athleticism, air-tight ball-handling skills, and crafty array of finishing moves. He takes 53.4% of his shots at the rim (per Hoop-Math) and should be able to take advantage of Colorado’s defensive weakness, defending the paint (316th in near-proximity attempt rate per Haslametrics).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Colorado vs USC spread and Over/Under analysis

This line has seen a bit of movement, opening Colorado -1.5 before jumping to -2.5 at some spots. It’s since settled back down to -1.5 at most books, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this one continues to fluctuate throughout the day. The total, meanwhile, opened at 151.5, was bet down to 149, and then moved back up to 150.5 at most spots. 

Be sure to track all further changes using our college basketball line movement tool. 

Both teams have been equally poor at covering spreads this year at 11-14 ATS. Both have been on a poor run as of late — Colorado is 3-7 ATS across its last 10 games while USC is 4-6 ATS. 

Looking back at this matchup, the Buffs have won seven of the last 10 meetings. That includes a 3-1 record at the Galen Center. 

If you’re looking to play the total, there’s a reason this one is a high number. Both teams have played to the Over with Colorado at 15-10 O/U and USC at 16-9 O/U. Colorado’s analytics are better offensively than defensively and while USC’s numbers are very similar on both ends of the court, the offense gets a boost now that Collier as back in the lineup and seemingly close to full strength after being out for four weeks with a broken hand.

It’s easy to see why the metrics like the Buffs. Their offensive profile is outstanding — they prioritize high-percentage looks (49% of shots coming at the rim, seventh nationally per Hoop-Math) but are also tremendous shooters, ranking 11th in three-point percentage (38.7%) and seventh in free-throw percentage (79%). 

I’d be more inclined to play Colorado’s team total over at 76.5 than the full game total. 

If you’re into the trends, consider that these teams have combined to go 3-12 O/U across the last 15 matchups, including 0-6 O/U in the last six at the Galen Center. 

Colorado vs USC betting trend to know

USC is 0-9 straight up as an underdog this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Colorado vs. USC.

Colorado vs USC game info

Colorado vs USC key injuries

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