The No. 17 Arizona Wildcats welcome the No. 12 Duke Blue Devils to the McKale Center in NCAA basketball action tonight.
The Wildcats are coming off a tough road loss, but my Duke vs. Arizona predictions expect them to get on track against the inexperienced Blue Devils.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this marquee matchup on Friday, November 22.
Duke vs Arizona prediction
My best bet
Arizona moneyline (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
Say what you will about Arizona Wildcats head coach Tommy Lloyd's inability to get over the hump in March, but he always seems to get his team performing at a high level early in the season.
In Lloyd's first season with the program in 2021-22, Arizona started 9-0 straight up and against the spread with wins against Michigan and Illinois.
The following season, they went a perfect 10-0 in their non-conference schedule and beat San Diego State, Creighton, and Tennessee, who all eventually made it to the Sweet 16. Last year, they began the season going 8-0 SU and ATS, which included a 78-73 victory against Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
To be fair, the Wildcats did suffer a rare early season setback last week against Wisconsin, losing 103-88. However, that came on the road and was a bizarre contest that saw Arizona commit 32 fouls and give the Badgers 47 free-throw attempts.
Wisconsin got 41 points on just eight field goals from senior Jon Tonje, who converted 21 shots from the charity stripe. That's the kind of outlier performance that rarely happens, so I won't hold it against the Wildcats too much.
The Duke Blue Devils also ended up with a defeat last week, losing 77-72 to Kentucky in the Champions Classic. There's no shame in coming up short vs. a highly-ranked squad on a neutral site, but Kentucky exposed Duke's lack of experience down the stretch.
The Blue Devils lost four starters in the offseason and replaced them with a trio of five-star freshmen, including projected No. 1 NBA pick Cooper Flagg. This is going to be a scary team to face in March, but there will be growing pains early in the season as they adjust to the competition level and athleticism of other powerhouse programs.
In addition, Duke has the tallest team in the country, but Arizona leads the country in rebounding rate (65.5%). The Wildcats give up a size at guard but have a massive frontcourt anchored by 6-foot-8 250-pound Tobe Awaka, while seven-footers Motiejus Krivas and Henri Veesaar come off the bench to combine for nearly 30 minutes per game.
The Wildcats have gone an incredible 49-3 at home under Lloyd, and I don't see them losing back-to-back games at this point in the season.
Duke vs Arizona same-game parlay
Arizona ML
Under 161
Tobe Awaka Over 7.5 rebounds
Bart Torvik is projecting 154 points in this game, with the KenPom model at 157, so this total looks a tad high at 161.
The Blue Devils bounced back from their loss to Kentucky by holding Wofford to 35 points on 25% shooting. Their offense is still building chemistry as they integrate new players, but their length and athleticism will help them play lockdown defense. They also prefer a below-average tempo and will slow the game down when they have possession.
Tobe Awaka is averaging an incredible 12.3 rebounds in just 20.3 minutes per game. He's logged at least nine boards in every game and pulled down 13 boards against Wisconsin. The O/U on his rebounds is too low, especially if he sees an uptick in minutes in a closer game.
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Duke vs Arizona odds
Duke vs Arizona live odds
Duke vs Arizona opening odds
- Spread: Duke +1 | Arizona -1
- Moneyline: Duke -105 | Arizona -115
- Over/Under: Over 160.5 | Under 160.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Duke vs Arizona betting trend to know
The Under is 15-7 in Arizona's last 22 games at home while going 22-14 in Duke's previous 36 games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Arizona.
How to watch Duke vs Arizona
| Location: | McKale Memorial Center, Tucson, AZ |
| Date: | Friday, 11-22-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Duke vs Arizona key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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