After a stunning loss to dampen the feel-good story of Florida Atlantic, last year’s Final Four entrant appears to have found their footing.
On Sunday, the 19th-ranked Owls battle the Virginia Tech Hokies in the ESPN Events Invitational tournament final in Kissimmee, Florida, where college basketball odds list them as 2.5-point favorites.
The Hokies have ripped off four straight wins and sit at 5-1 on the year, beating Iowa State and Boise State to make their way into the tournament's finale.
Read on for my free college basketball picks and best bet for Florida Atlantic vs. Virginia Tech on Sunday.
Florida Atlantic vs Virginia Tech best odds
Florida Atlantic vs Virginia Tech picks and predictions
Instead of crumbling after getting shocked by Bryant 61-52 in the third game of the year, the Florida Atlantic Owls went to work at the ESPN Events Invitational.
They've averaged 93.5 points across two tournament games with close but impressive wins over Butler and No. 12 Texas A&M.
Junior Johnell Davis led the way against A&M with a season-high 26 points, including a crisp 6-for-9 mark from downtown. Alijah Martin had 25 points and seven boards and also lit it up from distance (5-for-12).
As a team, the Owls are hitting from distance at a rate of 37.7% — a Top-60 number in the nation — while averaging 82.8 points per game, helping them climb to 22nd in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric.
The Virginia Tech Hokies beat the Cyclones 71-62 in the tournament semifinal and it's been defense that's been the key to success early on, allowing just 65.2 points per game.
The offense has been strong too, as the Hokies are scoring 81.3 points per game, a Top-80 mark in the country country. They're 31st in KenPom's offensive efficiency metric.
Hunter Cattor led the team in scoring with 18 points, while Sean Pedulla was right behind him with 17. The two guards combined to drill 8-for-14 from 3-point range.
With that said, I think the Owls are being undervalued here. The upset loss to Bryant dropped them outside of the Top 10 but they've shown they're a top team since then.
Look for them to claim the tournament crown in their home state this afternoon.
My best bet: Florida Atlantic moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)
Florida Atlantic vs Virginia Tech same-game parlay
Florida Atlantic moneyline
Johnell Davis Over 1.5 threes made
Lynn Kidd Under 13.5 points
It’s same-game parlay time, and let’s build it with the shooting stylings of Johnell Davis, who's found his stroke after not hitting a three in the Owls’ first two games of the year. He’s an impressive 10-for-16 from beyond the arc since then.
Even after holding Iowa State to 5-for-21-shooting from distance, Virginia Tech struggles to defend the 3-point line, with teams hitting at a 35.4% clip against them. That ranks a lowly 287th in the nation.
As for Lynn Kidd, he’s leading the Hokies in scoring with 17 points and eight rebounds on an impressive 78.7% mark from the field.
Kidd’s 13 points in Saturday’s win over Iowa State was his second-lowest output of the season after he scored at least 19 in the previous three games, including going for 20+ in two of those.
The senior’s struggles Sunday might be due to the opposition, as Kidd will likely have to bang with Florida Atlantic big man Vladislav Goldin, who owns a three-inch height advantage at 7-foot-1.
Goldin is no slouch: He had just 10 points against A&M, but he’s leading the Owls in scoring at 14.8 points per game and a team-best 6.8 rebounds.
It should be a good battle, but after a hot shooting night last game — the Hokies did go 11-for-28 (39.3%) from deep — Virginia Tech might go away from that matchup inside, limiting Kidd’s effectiveness.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Florida Atlantic vs Virginia Tech spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread has been as low as two points but has climbed through the weekend, where most books have settled at Owls -3.5.
For the year, Florida Atlantic is 3-2-0 against the spread, while Virginia Tech checks in at 4-2-0 ATS on the season.
The total has stayed above the 150-point threshold the entire time, with most lines settling in at 151.5, though with enough fishing, you could find another couple of books that have added a point.
Clearly, oddsmakers have faith in these defenses, as these schools will go Over with ease if they meet their season scoring averages.
The Over is 3-2-0 in Owls games, while Virginia Tech has gone Over in four of six games.
Florida Atlantic vs Virginia Tech betting trend to know
Sixteen of Florida Atlantic's last 17 games against non-AP-ranked opponents at a neutral venue have produced a total of 148 or fewer points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida Atlantic vs. Virginia Tech.
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Florida Atlantic vs Virginia Tech game info
| Location: | State Farm Field House, Kissimmee, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, November 26, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Florida Atlantic vs Virginia Tech key injuries
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