The No. 5 ranked Florida Gators face off against the No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide in a marquee matchup at Coleman Coliseum tonight.
The Tide have dropped three of their last five games and my Florida vs Alabama predictions don't see an easy win for them tonight.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this 7 p.m. tip on Wednesday, March 5.
Florida vs Alabama prediction
My best bet
Florida +3.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Alabama Crimson Tide will try to bounce back from a tough 79-76 loss at Tennessee last weekend. The Tide were up by four points with 30 seconds left but squandered that lead due to several coaching and player errors.
The Florida Gators had a road setback of their own last Tuesday at Georgia but rebounded with an impressive 89-70 win versus No. 12 Texas A&M on Saturday.
Both schools have spectacular attacks with the Tide third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and the Florida Gators fourth. Both are led by explosive backcourts that push the pace and space the floor extremely well. They also do a great job of attacking the rim and getting second chances on the offensive glass.
One key difference is that Florida is significantly better at taking care of the ball. The Gators are 39th in the country in turnover rate while the Crimson Tide are 178th.
That, combined with Alabama's lack of defensive pressure, has resulted in a turnover margin of -2.8, which ranks just 332nd in Div I. The Gators are 62nd with a TO margin of +2.1 and they also defend significantly better at the rim (98th per ShotQuality Bets) and in transition (18th).
Who you like in this matchup comes down to whether you think Florida's edge on defense is enough to overcome Alabama's home-court advantage.
Ultimately, I think Florida is better equipped to get the stops it needs down the stretch, especially with Bama's inexperience and poor coaching decisions popping up at times.
Florida vs Alabama same-game parlay (SGP)
Florida +3.5
Over 178.5
Clifford Omoruyi 7+ rebounds
This is a staggering total at 178.5 but I'm still leaning toward the Over. Keep in mind that the last seven meetings between these sides went Over the total and all three clashes last season saw at least 190 points on the board. The Tide are also 8-3 O/U on totals higher than 165 during conference play.
Clifford Omoruyi has grabbed 7+ boards in eight of his last 10 games and with both teams playing at a breakneck pace there will be plenty of rebounds to go around. In addition, Alabama's leading rebounder Grant Nelson (8.0 RPG) is questionable and if he doesn't suit up, Omoruyi should get more playing time than usual.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Florida vs Alabama odds
Florida vs Alabama live odds
Florida vs Alabama opening odds
- Spread: Florida +3.5 (-110) | Alabama -3.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Florida +140 | Alabama -165
- Over/Under: Over 177.5 (-115) | Under 177.5 (-105)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Florida vs Alabama betting trend to know
The Gators are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs Alabama.
How to watch Florida vs Alabama
| Location | Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-5-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Florida vs Alabama key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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