Wake up! There’s a loaded slate of college basketball games today with plenty of marquee matchups up and down the board.
One of the day's best games sees the No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs (7-2) take on the No. 18 UConn Huskies (7-3) at the Mecca of Basketball, Madison Square Garden.
What’s the best bet for this top-25 showdown? Check out our Gonzaga vs. UConn predictions and college basketball picks for Saturday, December 14.
Gonzaga vs UConn prediction
My best bet
Gonzaga -2 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
I need to see more before fully believing that the UConn Huskies are “back”. Dropping three straight games to Memphis, Colorado, and Dayton at the end of November was a rough sight, especially when the loss to the Flyers came by 18 points.
Dan Hurley has since tweaked his lineup and has notched wins over Maryland-Eastern Shore (99-45), Baylor (76-72), and Texas (76-65). That’s a good sign, no doubt, but it’s not convincing proof that the Huskies are back atop the sport — which is where you need to be to topple the Gonzaga Bulldogs.
Baylor ranks 12th in KenPom but has struggled when stepping up in competition, getting blown out by Gonzaga by 38 points (ahem, relevant data point!) and falling to Tennessee by 15. Texas has faced a soft schedule, beating NC State and Syracuse by four points apiece and falling by 8 to Ohio State in its only three games against Powe Conference opponents.
UConn can prove it is fully back with a win on Saturday, but I’ll need to see it first. Right now, the resume and the numbers point toward Gonzaga as the superior side, so I’m laying the points despite this game taking place at Madison Square Garden, a venue that should favor the underdog.
The Bulldogs have simply been superior in both facets of the game, ranking second in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and 19th on the defensive end.
Mark Few will have his squad motivated after a one-point loss to a really good Kentucky team. The Zags already have standout wins over Baylor, San Diego State, and Indiana.
An eight-point win over Arizona State was slightly less convincing, but the Sun Devils have been on a roll — that’s the only loss for Bobby Hurley’s team this year, and it has beaten a slew of quality mid-majors in Santa Clara, Grand Canyon, New Mexico, and St. Mary’s.
Consider me a fan of the way this Gonzaga team is constructed. Graham Ike is a dominant big man. Braden Huff is an elite scorer with tremendous size (6-foot-10), and Ben Gregg (6-foot-10) does a little bit of everything, making the Zags nearly matchup-proof proof, given their size and versatility.
Ryan Nembhard (10.9 points, 10.7 assists per game) is a steady, experienced hand guiding the offense. There’s a plethora of tertiary options filling in, like Khalif Battle (13.4 ppg), Nolan Hickman (11.2 ppg), Michael Ajayi (5.4 rebounds per game), and Dusty Stromer (No. 62 overall prospect in the 2023 recruiting class).
The Zags are gelling as a team and are a full-on menace to the college basketball world, while UConn is still finding its footing.
Gonzaga vs UConn same-game parlay
Gonzaga -2
Over 152.5
Both teams have trended toward the Over this season as Gonzaga is 7-2 O/U and UConn is 5-4-1 O/U.
It’s no mystery why — both teams are elite offensively. The Zags rank second in adjusted offensive efficiency and average 90.2 ppg. The Huskies, meanwhile, rank fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency while averaging 84.2 ppg.
Gonzaga is due for some regression in its three-point defense. Opponents are shooting just 24.9% from beyond the arc, the third-worst mark in the country.
UConn has three competent snipers in Alex Karaban (3.1 three-pointers per game on 48.1% shooting), Solo Ball (2.7 three-pointers per game on 45.8% shooting), and Liam McNeeley (1.7 three-pointers per game on 34.7% shooting).
The worry for the Over is that UConn slows the pace down offensively, ranking 319th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. Both teams have been so efficient on the offensive end that I still believe an Over is the side of the total I’d rather be on, especially at a reasonable number of 152.5.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Gonzaga vs UConn odds
Gonzaga vs UConn live odds
Gonzaga vs UConn opening odds
- Spread: Gonzaga -2 (-110) | UConn +2 (-110)
- Moneyline: Gonzaga (-150) | UConn (+125)
- Over/Under: Over 152.5 (-110) | Under 152.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Gonzaga vs UConn betting trend to know
UConn is 0-3 ATS in neutral site games this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Gonzaga vs. UConn.
How to watch Gonzaga vs UConn
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, 12-14-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Gonzaga vs UConn key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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