Kent State vs Akron Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Zips Zap Golden Flashes Offense

After a forgettable regular season in which it went 15-16, the Kent State Golden Flashes have been the MAC’s Cinderella story. They upset No. 1 Toledo and No. 5 Bowling Green on their way to making the MAC Tournament championship game against the Akron Zips.

However, this could be where the magic ends for the Golden Flashes with the college basketball odds favoring the Zips by 4.5. Between Akron’s suffocating defense and Kent State’s inefficiencies in shooting inside the arc, prepare for a slow burn in the title game before March Madness odds take further shape.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks and predictions for Kent State vs. Akron on Saturday, March 16.

Kent State vs Akron best odds

Kent State vs Akron picks and predictions

It was supposed to be a down year for Rob Senderoff and Kent State with roster turnover zapping most of the Golden Flashes production from last season’s NCAA Tournament team. Instead, his program has a chance to punch its ticket to the big dance for the third time in eight seasons.

The only thing standing in the way of Kent State’s out-of-nowhere tournament run is Akron, the program that took down the Golden Flashes in the MAC Tournament final two seasons ago. That win in 2021-22 led Akron to making its first NCAA Tournament since 2012-13 and just its fourth since the mid-80s.

These two teams have a history, with Kent State knocking Akron off in the MAC Tournament last year and the Zips doing it to the Golden Flashes the year before. Except this time around the deck is stacked against Senderoff with John Groce’s program being the far better team on paper this season.

The Zips were the second-best team in the MAC thanks to their defense, which was one of the best at the mid-major level and is a big reason the Under in this matchup is appetizing despite the game total being just 132.5.

Akron plays a similar style to Virginia, with a slow methodical offense and devastating defense, and it lends well to low-scoring games. This season, the Zips are 98th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and first in the MAC in defensive rating, per EvanMiya, while ranking 267th in adjusted tempo.

They completely shut opponents down this season, ranking 28th in the country in points allowed per game (66) and first in the MAC in conference play (65.7). MAC opponents simply couldn’t get anything going against Groce’s team, which held others to just 42.1% shooting on 55.7 shots per game in conference play.

More than anything, its perimeter defense is impenetrable. Akron allows the 17th lowest 3-point percentage in the country (29.9%) and gives up the 61st fewest 3-pointers per game (6.4). Those numbers get even better against MAC teams, allowing 6.2 threes per game on 28.2% shooting. 

That’s going to make things tough on a Kent State team that relies so heavily on the deep ball. The Golden Flashes are scoring 73.1 points per game in MAC play thanks to averaging the second-most threes in the conference (8.9).

While its 37% 3-point shooting in MAC play this season has been impressive, Kent State doesn’t have many other tricks up its sleeve. It’s shooting just 43.8% from the floor and 48.6% from two while hitting 17.1 twos per game.

Akron can lean on its perimeter defense to contain the Kent State long game, and it’s not as if the Zips are lacking anywhere else. Groce’s team allows the fewest two-point attempts (33.7) in MAC play this season and forces the third-most turnovers (10.1).

It’ll need to be at its best on defense, too, with its offense putting up so few shots. Akron is averaging 74.1 points per game, but is ninth in the conference in shots (57.4), 11th in two-point attempts (34.2), and seventh in three-point percentage (33%).

The Zips want to play dominant defense and drain the clock, and for as shot-happy as Kent State is, its defense has been solid. The Golden Flashes give up the fifth-fewest points in MAC play (71.7), allow the fewest three-point attempts (20.7), and give up the second-fewest two-pointers (18.3).

As long as Akron’s defense does what it has all season, this should be a low-scoring slugfest between two rivals.

My best bet: Under 132.5 (-110 at bet365)

Kent State vs Akron same-game parlay

Under 132.5

Akron -4.5

+264 at bet365

Most seasons, an Akron vs. Kent State MAC title game would mean two of the three best teams in the conference have made a run in the tournament. Instead, Kent State has persevered in a down year and finds itself with a shot at the Big Dance.

While the Golden Flashes have been playing great basketball of late, Akron’s defense has been too suffocating and is the reason the Zips swept Kent State in the regular season. With the stakes higher, Groce’s team should capture another win against Senderoff’s squad.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kent State vs Akron spread and Over/Under analysis

Between Akron being one of the best teams in the MAC this season and Kent State having a down year by its standards, the Zips opened favored by 4.5 points with little movement. Akron is 15-15-1 against the spread, but Kent State is just 11-20. The Zips covered in both previous matchups against the Golden Flashes.

While these teams do have clashing styles, Akron’s defense has been so dominant this year that the game total opened between 132.5 and 133 with most books now sitting between 132 and 132.5. The Zips defense has allowed it to go 19-12 betting the Under this season while Kent State is 13-18.

Kent State vs Akron betting trend to know

Akron has hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.50 Units / 38% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kent State vs. Akron.

Kent State vs Akron game info

Kent State vs Akron key injuries

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