The No. 17 Kentucky Wildcats head to Baton Rouge to face the LSU Tigers in SEC basketball action on Wednesday night. The Wildcats are coming off a massive win on against Auburn in The Jungle and will now try to knock off another Tigers team on the road.
However, it wouldn't be an upset this time since college basketball odds have the Wildcats as 6.5-point road favorites against an LSU squad that is 10th in the conference standings with a 5-7 record. Here are my best free college basketball picks for Kentucky vs. LSU on February 21.
Kentucky vs LSU best odds
Kentucky vs LSU picks and predictions
The Kentucky Wildcats are 18-7 and have an 8-4 record in conference play after beating Auburn 70-59 as 8.5-point road underdogs. It was a fantastic defensive display from a Kentucky side that has struggled on that end of the floor all season. Auburn shot just 31% from the floor and went 4-for-22 (18%) from the arc.
What makes this matchup especially tough to handicap is that LSU Tigers point guard Jalen Cook (team-high 15.6 points and 2.8 assists per game) is questionable with a hamstring injury. Cook has missed 12 games this season and LSU was held below 70 points in seven of those contests. He missed most of LSU's non-conference schedule due to eligibility issues but it's a hamstring injury that's been bothering him lately.
That nagging injury sidelined Cook in a 20-point loss to Tennessee two weeks ago and also forced him to miss LSU's previous game — a come-from-behind 64-63 win on the road against South Carolina. The Tigers proved they could be competitive without Cook with Trae Hannibal growing as a leader at PG and Jordan Wright stepping up as their go-to scorer.
While they had to rally to beat the Gamecocks, it was still an impressive road victory against a team that's currently projected to make March Madness and had lost just once at home. Now the Tigers get to play at home where they've gone 9-4 with two of those defeats coming down to the wire.
As good as the Wildcats looked on Tuesday, let's keep in mind they were just 104th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency entering that contest. This is a massive letdown and lookahead spot for them after that emotional win against Auburn and with a date against No. 13 Alabama looming on Saturday.
I'll take the Tigers with the points and keep my fingers crossed for Cook to play through that injury.
My best bet: LSU +6.5 (-110 at bet365)
Kentucky vs LSU same-game parlay
LSU +6.5
Jordan Wright Over 15.5 points
Antonio Reeves Over 2.5 threes made
Jordan Wright is LSU's second-leading scorer with 15.0 ppg and he would seem like a decent bet to go Over 15.5 points even if Cook was playing. If Cook misses another contest this number becomes a bargain. Keep in mind Wright played extremely well against Kentucky when he was on Vanderbilt last season, scoring 23 points in Lexington before dropping 18 vs. the Wildcats in the conference tournament.
One area where Kentucky should have success is from the arc where the Wildcats are second in the country in 3-point percentage (40.5%) and 18th in 3-pointers made per game (9.6). The Wildcats top scorer is Antonio Reeves who shoots a sizzling 43.9% from long range and has knocked down 65 treys this season.
He should be able to eclipse 2.5 triples against a Tigers squad that is 273rd in the country in high quality threes allowed per ShotQualityBets.
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Kentucky vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with the Wildcats at -6.5 with the total at 165. Early money came in on Kentucky and the Under, slimming the O/U to 163 and shifting the spread to -6.5.
The Tigers have just two wins in their last eight games but are 4-4 ATS during that span. They are currently 77th in the KenPom ratings and 88th in the NET rankings and will likely miss out on March Madness for the second straight year.
The Wildcats are eighth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency thanks to their sizzling outside shooting, ability to score in transition, and steady ball-handling. Their shaky defense has been their biggest flaw this season and they went just 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS in a nine-game stretch between January 10 and February 10.
They may have turned things around since then, picking up back-to-back wins and covers against Auburn and Mississippi where they held both teams to below 40% shooting from the field.
Kentucky vs LSU betting trend to know
The Over is 22-10 in Kentucky's last 32 games (+11.00 Units / 31% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Kentucky vs. LSU.
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Kentucky vs LSU game info
| Location: | Pete Maravich Assembly Center, Baton Rouge, LA |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 21, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Kentucky vs LSU key injuries
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