Clemson vs Alabama Predictions, Picks, and Odds for March Madness Elite Eight Matchup

The West Region of the March Madness bracket hasn’t played out like some other sides of the Big Dance.

While many top-seeded favorites followed the projected path to the Elite Eight, the West final sees the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide taking on the No. 6 Clemson Tigers tonight with a ticket to the Final Four on the line.

The Crimson Tide survived a shootout as March Madness odds underdogs against No. 1 North Carolina and are slight 3.5-point favorites taking on a Tigers team that has won all three tournament tilts as underdogs, including Thursday’s stunning 77-72 victory over No. 2 Arizona.

I run down the betting markets for this Elite Eight matchup and give my best March Madness picks and predictions for Clemson vs. Alabama on Saturday, March 30.

Clemson vs Alabama best odds

Clemson vs Alabama picks and predictions

A short turnaround and a frenetic pace favors the Crimson Tide on Saturday. Alabama is a tough team to game plan for with ample time to prep, but now Clemson has to take a crash course on Nate Oats’ up-and-down attack that will test the Tigers’ legs in the Elite Eight.

Clemson has been able to put the wrangle on some good offenses so far in the Big Dance. It put the brakes on up-tempo New Mexico in the Round of 64, limited Baylor’s outside shooting in the Round of 32, and overcame Arizona’s depth in the Sweet 16. Alabama, however, is a combination of all those attributes.

The Crimson Tide push pace at the 10th-fastest tempo in the land, ranking 59th in points per play in transition. The Tigers can struggle to slow down that tempo, sitting 310th in the defensive inverse of that metric, according to ShotQualityBets.
When it’s not running to the rim for high-percentage looks, Alabama is taking and making a ton of triples. The Crimson Tide are able to quickly put distance or catch up on the scoreboard with that range, ranking Top 25 in points per play in multiple 3-point schemes.

And it’s not just a few guys doing damage either, with Alabama boasting four scorers that average more than 11 points and eight guys putting up five or more per contest. That’s a deep rotation that will test Clemson’s stamina in this quick turnaround.

Beyond those trademark traits, the Tide also thrive in other impactful areas that will change this game. They hit the offensive glass hard for second-chance points and added possessions. Alabama is 25th in offensive rebound rate and pull in more than 11 per game. It’s coming off 15 offensive rebounds against UNC, one of the best rebounding teams in the entire country. Clemson, conversely, allowed 17 offensive boards to Arizona, 11 to Baylor, and 17 to New Mexico State.

Alabama’s aggressive approach is also fantastic at putting defenders out of position and drawing contact. The Tide draw the 10th-most personal fouls in the country and attempt over 23 free-throw attempts on the season, upping that to 26.3 FTA per game during the NCAA Tournament.

The Tigers have found themselves in foul trouble in their three March Madness contest, getting whistled for an average of 20 per over the last three games. The most significant impact has been star center P.J. Hall, who was limited to just 19 minutes in each of the first two tourney tilts due to foul trouble.

Game models do call for a competitive contest on Saturday, with most projecting a 2 to 3-points win for the Crimson Tide. But given the matchup issues Alabama presents for Clemson, all of those forecasts see the Tide advancing to Glendale. I’ll keep it simple and take Alabama outright.

My best bet: Alabama moneyline (-165 at Pinnacle)

Clemson vs Alabama same-game parlay

Alabama moneyline

Chase Hunter Over 1.5 made threes

Grant Nelson Over 12.5 points

+450 at bet365

On a quick turnaround, I’m giving the nod to the Crimson Tide. Alabama can pick apart Clemson’s shortcomings, especially when it comes to foul trouble for the Tigers.

Hunter was 0-for-5 from distance against Arizona, but his volume from beyond the arc spiked in the postseason. Clemson will need to go tit-for-tat from deep with Bama. I like him to hit at least two from distance.

Nelson did a great job stretching the UNC interior with his outside shooting while also drawing contact and cashing in from the stripe. He'll do the same against PJ Hall today.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Clemson vs Alabama spread and Over/Under analysis

• After Alabama held off UNC late on Thursday, oddsmakers opened the Crimson Tide between -3 and -3.5 for the Elite Eight. As of Friday morning, those two spreads are available across the industry.
  
  
• Clemson has won outright as an underdog in all three NCAA Tournament games en route to the Elite Eight and are now 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS when getting points this season. Alabama has also covered in each of its stops during the Big Dance and owns a 17-9 ATS record as a favorite.
  
  
• The total for Saturday hit the board at 164.5 points and has moved to 165 at some books, as of Friday morning. This is by far the tallest total Clemson has drawn this season. The Tigers have played Under in all four of their postseason games, going back to the ACC tournament. As for the Crimson Tide, they’ve gone Over in three of four postseason outings and are 10-2 O/U in their last dozen games overall.
  
  
• Early Covers Consensus data shows 60% of picks laying the short spread with Bama while 54% of total picks are taking the Over, as of Friday morning

Clemson vs Alabama betting trend to know

Alabama has won outright on the moneyline in 17 of its last 23 games (+9.80 units). Find more college basketball betting trends for Clemson vs. Alabama.

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