Dayton vs Arizona Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Can Cardiac Flyers Strike Again in March Madness?

Round of 32 action in the West Region of the March Madness bracket tips off at 12:45 p.m. ET today when the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats dance with the No. 7 Dayton Flyers for a spot in the Sweet 16. March Madness odds have the Wildcats pegged close to double-digit favorites for this second-round matchup in Salt Lake City. 

Arizona handled its business after a slow start versus No. 15 Long Beach State, but depending on where you bet the Wildcats (-19.5, -20, or -20.5), that 20-point win meant many different things to many different bettors making college basketball picks.

Dayton, on the other hand, didn’t make it easy for anyone taking the points with the Flyers. They trailed against Nevada by as many as 17 points before storming back with a 24-4 run to win and advance. 

I run down the spread and Over/Under total for this West Region war and give my best March Madness picks and predictions for Dayton vs. Arizona on Saturday, March 23.

Dayton vs Arizona best odds

Dayton vs Arizona picks and predictions

The Dayton Flyers opened as short as an 8.5-point underdog for this Round of 32 pairing. But after barely escaping Nevada on Thursday — and the Arizona Wildcats cruising to a 20-point win — the betting market isn’t rushing to bet the Flyers and the points. This spread is now as high as +9.5.

Dayton digging itself out of a 17-point hole is worrisome, especially if it happens against a team like the Wildcats. But the way the Flyers found themselves down isn’t reflective of the actual quality of this team.

Big Dance nerves absolutely got the worst of Dayton in the opening 32 minutes of March Madness. The Flyers were tight, which led to unforced turnovers and missed layups. Hell, one of Dayton’s best players — Nate Santos — was scoreless in the first 30 minutes.

But what we saw from the Flyers in the final eight minutes of that victory is the real Dayton: an explosive offense that can get up and down the floor and hit triples in bunches. This is one of the best offenses in the country (21st in offensive efficiency), especially from beyond the arc (No. 3 in 3-point percentage).

Arizona is going to get it all with the Flyers shedding those opening-game jitters and setting their sights on the Sweet 16. The Wildcats are susceptible to a shootout on Saturday, with bad matchups against the Dayton attack that either gets to the basket or bangs it in from distance.

According to ShotQualityBets, Arizona is 260th in points allowed per play when foes finish at the rim, while the Flyers rank 55th in the offensive flip of that metric. While Dayton isn’t known for its pace, it’s comfortable in a tempo game and is very good in transition (12th highest points per play), facing an Arizona defense ranked 323rd in points allowed to transition attacks.

Dayton is 83rd and 85th in points per play on triples, either set up in “catch-and-shoot” or “off-the-dribble” spots. The Wildcats are 161st and 224th, respectively, in guarding those perimeter play sets and face a Flyers team that knocks down more than 40% from distance and caught fire from outside in the final minutes versus Nevada.

I took Dayton moneyline versus Nevada (that was a sweat) and advanced them in my bracket to the Round of 32, which had me check the potential point spread for this pairing. Before yesterday’s game, Arizona was forecasted as a 6.5-point favorite by some sites.

Updated game models have the Wildcats winning but only by 6-8 points, which makes the Flyers a very live underdog at +9.5. 

My best bet: Dayton +9.5 (-110 at bet365)

Dayton vs Arizona same-game parlay

Dayton +9.5

Koby Brea Over 2.5 made 3s

DaRon Holmes II Over 19.5 points

+400 at bet365

The Flyers offense can keep pace with Arizona and do serious damage from beyond the arc. They’re much better than what we saw in the Round of 64.

Koby Brea will let it fly from deep against the Wildcats' poor perimeter defense. Projections call for 3+ triples from him on Saturday.

DaRon Holmes II is forecasted for a monster game against Arizona, with a ceiling of 23 points. He can beat up the Wildcats inside and stretch them with his shooting touch.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Dayton vs Arizona spread and Over/Under analysis

After Dayton’s remarkable comeback against Nevada, bookies opened Arizona around a 9-point favorite with some books coming in as short as -8.5. Early play showed up on the Wildcats and moved this spread to -9.5.

Arizona put a fright in anyone advancing it deep in their bracket picks with a slow start against No. 15 Long Beach State on Thursday. The Wildcats held a 41-35 halftime lead and eventually broke down the Beach for a 20-point victory that straddled the line adjustments for that Round of 64 game.

Dayton was a short underdog against Nevada in its tournament opener and looked on track for an early exit, falling behind by 17 points due to sloppy play and bad misses. However, the Flyers’ explosive offense woke up just in time to pull off an incredible comeback and win outright as 1-point underdogs. 

Saturday’s Over/Under total hit the board as low as 148.5 points and has climbed a tick to 149.5 as of Friday morning. Both Arizona and Dayton stayed below the total in their Round of 64 contests. 

The Wildcats are 16-18 Over/Under on the season, having played Under in all three postseason games and boasting a 2-7 O/U streak in their last nine games overall.

The Flyers own an 18-13-1 O/U count. Dayton finished the regular season on a 8-1-1 O/U run but has stayed Under the closing total in its two postseason games so far.

Dayton vs Arizona betting trend to know

Dayton is 4-1-1 ATS as an underdog this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Dayton vs. Arizona.

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Dayton vs Arizona game info

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