Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary's Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Antelopes Carry Momentum Into March Madness

The Round of 64 comes to a close when the No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels face the No. 12 Grand Canyon Antelopes in tonight's college basketball picks.

This 10:05 p.m. ET tipoff has the Gaels laying 5.5 points in the March Madness odds, with the “No. 12 over No. 5” trend hovering over this game. 

The Antelopes bring a balanced style into the March Madness bracket, facing some heavyweights in non-conference play, including a win over San Diego State. GCU will also have the best player on the floor, featuring former Kansas recruit Tyon Grant-Foster.

St. Mary’s topped a down year for the WCC but the Gaels remain one of the elite defenses in college hoops, ranked Top-15 in defensive efficiency. The Gaels pad that with an offensive tempo that makes opponents play defense for more than 20 seconds a possession.

I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this No. 5 versus No. 12 matchup and give my best March Madness picks for Grand Canyon vs. St. Mary’s on March 22.

Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary's best odds

Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary's picks and predictions

Bryce Drew holds a special place in March Madness lore and looks to add to that legacy as head coach of Grand Canyon. The Antelopes drew an infamous No. 12 seed, which has been the home of more than one NCAA upstart.

Does GCU have what it takes to sustain Saint Mary's and its smothering defense in the Round of 64? I’m going to say, “Yes”.

Grand Canyon has been on this stage before, playing in their third Big Dance in the past four years. The Lopes are a balanced team that can play varying styles, including an up-tempo approach. 

GCU can get up and down the floor as one of the better transition teams in college hoops, ranking 22nd in points per play in transition, according to ShotQualityBets. Putting Saint Mary’s on its heels is the best way to punch holes in this SMU defense.

Although the Gaels play one of the slowest tempos in the country and drag possessions deep into the shot clock, we’ve seen Saint Mary’s get uncomfortable against foes that want to push the pace. Its most recent loss to Gonzaga in the regular season finale saw the Zags score 15 fastbreak points in a 70-57 win.

Grand Canyon has a bevy of offensive talents that can finish those fastbreaks, boasting three players averaging 13 or more points, including 6-foot-7 guard Tyon Grant-Foster. He’s scoring just shy of 20 points per game and enters the tournament playing his best basketball of the season, going for 20-plus in four of his last six games.

Gabe McGlothan, who puts up 13 points and more than seven rebounds a game, is expected to be back in full force as well after dealing with a sore hip that limited him in the home stretch and conference tournament. McGlothan’s work on the board will be key in keeping SMU off the offensive glass.

Odds for this game opened as short as GCU +4.5, and early money hit the Lopes to make that the market consensus on the first day of action. That spread has since gone back to its original opener of +5.5, with some shops at Antelopes +5

Game models for Friday’s Round of 64 finale call for a Saint Mary’s victory, but that margin varies. The Gaels are projected to win by as few as three points or by as many as seven, but the bulk of projections have this one being settled by five points or less.

My best bet: Grand Canyon +5.5 (-110 at bet365)

Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary's same-game parlay

Grand Canyon +5.5

Tyon Grant-Foster Over 17.5 points

Mitchell Saxen Over 7.5 rebounds

+500 at bet365

The Antelopes can get the Gaels on their heels and have the best player on the floor in a game that could come down to the wire.

Meanwhile, Grant-Foster has been a monster for GCU recently and doesn’t shrink away from home. 

Mitchell Saxen is a beast on the boards for Saint Mary’s, wrangling 7.5 rebounds an outing. This game will play at a quicker pace than SMU’s used to, which means more FGAs = more rebound chances.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary's spread and Over/Under analysis

After the Selection Sunday show went off the air, oddsmakers opened Saint Mary’s as short as 4.5-point neutral favorites against Grand Canyon. Some books were higher at -5.5. That spread dipped across the board but came back up later in the week. 

As of Thursday afternoon, SMU is between -5 and -5.5, with Covers Consensus showing 56% of picking taking the points with the Antelopes. 

Grand Canyon is a well-balanced team that plays steady defense and can find another gear on offense, averaging 79.5 ppg. The Lopes are 18-14 against the spread and bring a five-game ATS winning streak into the Big Dance. Grand Canyon has been an underdog only twice this season, covering in both games.

Saint Mary’s benefitted from a down year in the WCC and came to life in conference play after a bumpy non-conference sked. The Gaels are also 18-14 ATS, including a 12-6 ATS mark in conference games. However, SMU went just 6-8 ATS outside the league.

Friday’s total hit the board at 130.5 and has since climbed to 131.5. As of Thursday afternoon. Covers Consensus shows 59% of total picks on the Over.

The Gaels are 17-15 Over/Under on the season despite their pace and defense, drawing diminutive totals in the mid-130-point range. Saint Mary’s closed out the season going 5-2 O/U in its final seven games overall.

The Antelopes are 17-15 O/U this season with a 4-1 O/U mark in non-conference games. Grand Canyon went Over in both WAC tournament tilts and enter the NCAA Tournament on an 8-3 O/U run in its previous 11 contests.

Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary's betting trend to know

Dating back to 2020, Grand Canyon is 18-7 ATS as an underdog. Find more college basketball betting trends for Grand Canyon vs. Saint Mary's.

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Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary's game info

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