The first round of the NCAA Tournament wraps up on Friday night with a clash between the No. 12 seeded Liberty Flames and No. 5 seed Oregon Ducks.
This is an East Region game but will take place in Seattle and my Liberty vs. Oregon predictions expect that to make a difference.
Here are my free March Madness picks for this March 21 clash, with tipoff at 10:10 p.m. ET.
Who will win Liberty vs Oregon?
There are a lot of March Madness brackets where Liberty is a trendy upset pick, which is understandable since Oregon has looked vulnerable, and the Flames are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country.
If they catch fire from deep, can they pull off the upset? Sure, but relying on threes is a high-variance strategy that can backfire if your shots aren't dropping.
With Oregon's sold 3-point defense and a huge (no pun intended) size advantage, I don't see the Flames having as much success as usual from beyond the arc.
When you also add in their tough situational spot, flying to Seattle for a late tip-off, the West Coast based Ducks will get the win.
Liberty vs Oregon prediction
My best bet: Oregon -7 (-110 at bet365)
With 12/5 seed upsets now a narrative the public is looking for, bettors sometimes come in hard on No. 12 seeds, which can lead to us getting pretty good lines for the favorite.
This is a brutal travel spot for the Liberty Flames, who fly from Virginia to Seattle for a 10 p.m. ET tipoff. Meanwhile, the Oregon Ducks will be right at home in the Pacific Time Zone.
The Flames are perimeter-oriented and rank fifth in the country in 3-point percentage (39.5%) and third in 3-point defense (28%).
That said, it's one thing to get open looks from deep against Conference USA foes and another to get them against an athletic, high-major squad like Oregon. The Ducks hold foes to 31.6% shooting from the arc, and head coach Dana Altman will be able to gameplan against a one-dimensional attack.
Liberty also has one of the smaller lineups in Div 1 and is just 298th in rebounding rate (47.6%). The Ducks are 110th in rebounding rate (51.4%), and that's banging against the sizable frontcourts in the Big Ten.
With seven-foot center Nate Bittle and a big group of forwards, Oregon should control the paint.
Liberty vs Oregon same-game parlay (SGP)
Oregon -6.5
Jayvon Maughmer Under 1.5 threes
Nate Bittle Over 7.5 rebounds
For Oregon to cover this spread, it'll need to limit the Flames from behind the arc and prevent second chances on the offensive glass.
Liberty wing Jayvon Maughmer takes more than half of his shots from beyond the arc but he converts a modest 32.8% of them. He has knocked down fewer than 1.5 threes in 14 of his last 18 games and has an ugly 30.6 3PT% over that span.
Bittle has pulled down at least eight boards in three straight and he's coming off an 11-rebound performance against a Michigan State squad that usually dominates the glass.
He'll have a productive day inside against Liberty, who is 347th in the country in average height, according to KenPom.
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Liberty vs Oregon odds
Liberty vs Oregon live odds
Liberty vs Oregon opening odds
- Spread: Liberty +6.5 | Oregon -6.5
- Moneyline: Liberty +230 | Oregon -280
- Over/Under: Over 140.5 | Under 140.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Liberty vs Oregon betting trend to know
The Under is 7-1 in Oregon's last eight games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Liberty vs. Oregon.
How to watch Liberty vs Oregon
| Region | East |
| Location | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Friday, 3-21-2025 |
| Tip-off | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | truTV |
Liberty vs Oregon key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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