Michigan will meet Texas A&M for a trip to the Sweet 16.
This is one of the better Round of 32 matchups for my money. That's because these teams are very different but still relatively even, but more on later. Each team was on upset alert in the first round, and each got by.
Michigan survived (that's genuinely the only way to put it) against UC San Diego after surrendering a late lead. Texas A&M had a more comfortable go of it but still had to fend off a few late runs by Yale to get the victory.
We see a particularly ugly contest in this game, with both defenses holding advantages.
Read on for my Michigan vs. Texas A&M predictions and March Madness picks for Saturday, March 22.
Who will win Michigan vs Texas A&M?
I tentatively lean toward Texas A&M, and it's always that way when the Aggies face any team that can match their talent.
We hit on this preparing for the Yale game, but the Aggies would rather mercilessly execute you on the offensive backboard than run any complex offense. It's a lot of dribble hand-offs and single simple ball screens.
This works against many opponents because you inevitably beat them with the math by getting such a large shot volume edge. However, it can also be a death kneel when you aren't getting those rebounds.
Against Michigan, they should be able to get those rebounds. Even though Blue has spent almost the entirety of the season with the twin-tower lineup of Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin, it hasn't shown the capacity to be more than average on the defensive glass.
That's a big issue to have when facing the Aggies.
Michigan vs Texas A&M prediction
My best bet: Under 141 (-110 at bet365)
Multiple environmental aspects must be considered about this game before you even get into the matchup. That matchup includes two defenses that can hold their own against the other and one that should be able to disrupt the other's flow entirety.
We'll get to that, but that's considering what I previously noted.
The altitude impact on legs with a day's rest should show itself here. The Under was 2-2-0 yesterday in Denver, but the shooting wasn't great. Every team sans BYU saw themselves shoot below their season average on 2 PT jumpers.
That's a significant qualifier because, defensively, both teams will force the other into many jumpers.
For the Texas A&M Aggies, that's because that is their most common vehicle for getting shots up, and for the Michigan Wolverines, they'll be forced into some by how they are defended.
That makes me expect some inefficient offense without genuinely considering the tactical aspects of things. When you do that, it becomes more apparent.
Texas A&M is aggressive in everything.
They are aggressive in their ball pressure, aggressive in their hedging, and aggressive in their deflection – their general disposition is just aggression. Because of that, Michigan's ugly turnover issues will be brought to the forefront for a second straight game.
Turnovers were a significant story in the last round against UC San Diego, and the Wolverines coughed the ball up 14 times. Texas A&M may not have the season-long gaudy steal rate stats like the Tritons, but they can more than heat opposing ballhandlers up.
Head coach Buzz Williams will have also circled these issues and keyed into them as part of the A&M defense. A similar story could unfold here and disrupt the Michigan offensive flow.
As noted above, I suspect that Texas A&M will get the best of Michigan on the offensive glass, which is pretty much the first thing you look at when handicapping an Aggies game.
That said, they won't get every rebound, and the Wolverines should be able to do a decent job of stopping the initial action.
Opponents have scored just .78 points per possession on plays defined as "dribble jumpers" against Michigan this season. For all intents and purposes, that is the Texas A&M offense behind Wade Taylor and Zhuric Phelps.
The Wolverines' defenders are well-equipped to slow it down. If they put up any type of fight at all on the backboard, then this should stay low-scoring.
Michigan vs Texas A&M same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 141
Danny Wolf Over 10.5 rebounds
Henry Coleman Over 5.5 rebounds
With many clanks expected, it only makes sense to pair two rebound props with our best bet.
The first of these is Danny Wolf to eclipse 10 rebounds. As I noted, Michigan has been average as a team this season on the defensive backboard. But Wolf, as an individual, has not. He's exceeded this rebound total in three of his last four postseason games.
With such a renewed commitment to the backboard, I'm inclined to ride the hot hand.
We rounded things out with Henry Coleman to go over his rebound total. I've bet on him a ton this season, and for a straightforward reason: He's consistently had the highest offensive rebounding percentage amongst Aggies.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Michigan vs Texas A&M odds
Michigan vs Texas A&M live odds
Michigan vs Texas A&M opening odds
- Spread: Michigan +1.5 (-110) | Texas A&M -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Michigan +105 | Texas A&M -125
- Over/Under: Over 140.5 (-110) | Under 140.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Michigan vs Texas A&M betting trend to know
Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 25 of their last 35 games (+11.00 Units / 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Michigan vs. Texas A&M.
How to watch Michigan vs Texas A&M
| Region | South |
| Location | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date | Saturday, 3-22-2025 |
| Tip-off | 5:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Michigan vs Texas A&M key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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