Colgate vs Arkansas South Region Picks: Don't Brush Off The Raiders

There are few worse feelings in college basketball betting than being on the wrong end of a Cinderella destroying your March Madness picks. Having a bracket busted is a foul taste to try and wash out of your mouth, especially when you feel like you're at the crest of victory, but we're going to aim to talk some sense into you when South Region No. 3 Arkansas takes on...Colgate.

We break down the odds and try to have you coming out minty fresh with our free picks and predictions for Colgate vs. Arkansas on Friday, March 19.  

Colgate vs Arkansas odds

Sharp money and line movement report

By Patrick Everson

Arkansas landed on FanDuel's odds board as a 9.5-point favorite Sunday night and hit -10 Monday morning, but by late Thursday night, the line was down to -8.5, where it remains today. It's two-way point-spread action, with the Razorbacks taking 54 percent of bets and 51 percent of money. The total shot from 157.5 to 162.5 early in the week, then receded Thursday to 160.5, with 65 percent of bets/54 percent of cash on the Under.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Colgate Raiders vs Arkansas Razorbacks betting preview

Injuries

Colgate: None.
Arkansas: Jaylin Williams F (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in the Razorbacks' last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Colgate vs. Arkansas.

Against the spread (ATS) pick

In a South region that has high-scoring programs such as Baylor, Oral Roberts, Ohio State and Purdue, Colgate is just keeping up with the trend. The Raiders are 58th in the nation in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, while ranking second in the country with 86.4 points per game.

Colgate went 14-1 SU (10-5 ATS) this season, currently riding a 13-game SU winning streak to claim the Patriot League title and its second NCAA tournament appearance in three years. The Raiders have a senior-heavy group, led by Patriot League Player of the Year Jordan Burns, who is first on the team in points (17.1), assists (5.5) and is third with 4.5 rebounds per game. In addition to their scoring, Colgate is also a strong rebounding squad, sitting eighth in the nation in total rebounds per game and grabbing nearly 54 percent of all available boards. 

The drawback on the Raiders is that it's hard to get a true read on them, as they only played 15 total games and only five different opponents...none of which are even remotely near the quality of Arkansas.

The Razorbacks took a big leap forward in their second season under Eric Musselman, going 22-6 – the program's best win percentage since 1994-95 – and were riding a nine-game SU win streak (8-1 ATS), before losing to LSU as 3.5-point favorites in the SEC Tournament semifinals.

The loss to the Tigers was disappointing, but it was also the result of a horrific shooting night for the Hogs, who shot a dismal 23.1 percent from beyond the arc and only 57.9 percent from the free-throw line—uncharacteristically bad numbers for a team that finished fifth in the SEC in 3-point percentage and second in free-throw percentage.

When at its best, Arkansas does it on both ends of the floor, ranking 34th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 15th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and logged wins over LSU, Alabama and Florida during its winning streak. The Hogs are also a strong team on the glass and had they not slipped up in the SEC semis, they could have made a case to be a No. 2 seed—but instead will have to settle for being arguably the best three-seed in the tournament.

Arkansas has shown it can hang with really anyone and I highly doubt another dismal shooting night will be in store. The Raiders are definitely a tricky matchup as a 14-seed, as there's a lot to like about them, but it's hard to look at the lack of competition and not question how good they really are.

This game could easily be the most competitive 3 vs. 14 matchup in the bracket, but I think, in the end, Arkansas is just too balanced and will pull away for win and cover.

PREDICTION: Arkansas -10 (-110)

Over/Under Pick

Both teams love to push the pace, with Colgate averaging 16 seconds per possession and Arkansas 15.9, but the Raiders are actually just 7-7 O/U this season, while Arkansas is 14-12 O/U and has seen the Under hit in five of its last seven games.

Also, this opening total of 163 is the second-highest number the Hogs have seen all season (163.5 against Alabama) and is easily the highest number Colgate has been hit with this year.

While Arkansas should have no problem going score-for-score with the Raiders, at some point Musselman's squad will want to flex some defensive muscles and take Colgate out of its comfort zone.

With any prolonged stretch of this game not being all-out offense, it's hard to see this one going over the lofty total. 

PREDICTION: Under 163 (-110)

First half pick

As mentioned above, Colgate is led by a number of seniors that already have had a taste of NCAA Tournament action—we're not expecting nerves to be a factor, especially for a Raiders squad that has gotten off to good starts all year, boasting a first-half scoring margin of +8.4.

The Razorbacks, on the other hand, are only averaging a 3.4-point lead going into halftime (albeit in a much tougher SEC), but have actually posted a -2.3-point average margin over their last three games.

We expect the Raiders to come out gunning, and Arkansas to play at the same pace until it finally settles in and pulls away late. Thankfully, "late" means the second half, as we're looking at Colgate to go into the break within striking distance—and covering the 1H spread.  

PREDICTION: Colgate first half +5.5 (-108)

Colgate vs Arkansas betting card

• Arkansas -10 (-110)
• Under 163 (-110)
• Colgate first half +5.5 (-108)

Where can I bet on March Madness odds?

March Madness is one of the most popular times of the year for sports bettors, which of course makes it one of the busiest times of the year for online sportsbooks. Every betting site will offer March Madness odds but the top sites are safe and secure, offer a wide range of banking options, and give you a ton of markets for each game. Check out the best March Madness betting sites in your region.

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