A No. 16 seed had never topped a No. 1 seed, until three years ago when the then-unfathomable actually happened.
While we've seen it's now technically possible, it would be incredibly bold of us to kick off our March Madness picks by selecting the South Region's top seed, Baylor, to fall to Hartford in the first round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament.
Are we going to take Hartford to win? No, no we're not. But could we take the Hawks to cover? Find out below in our free college basketball betting picks and predictions for Hartford vs. Baylor.
Hartford vs Baylor odds
Sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonBaylor hit the PointsBet USA odds board as a heavy 25.5-point favorite Sunday night, quickly hit -26 and stuck there most of the week before moving back to the opener Thursday. As of 12:30 p.m. ET Friday, the line remains -25.5. "Fifty-seven percent of spread bets and 77 percent of spread money on Baylor," PointsBet's Wyatt Yearout said. The total is down to 139 from a 142 opener and 142.5 high point, with the Under taking 57 percent of bets/54 percent of cash.
Check out the full line movement for this gameHartford Hawks vs Baylor Bears betting preview
Injuries
Hartford: None.
Baylor: None.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 15-5-1 in the Hawks' last 21 games as an underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Hartford vs. Baylor.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
Baylor was one of the last Power Conference programs to lose a game this season, which it finally suffered three weeks ago, and the Bears also bowed out of the Big 12 Tournament early with a semifinal loss to Oklahoma State. But make no mistake: Baylor is one of the most dominant teams in the nation, earning the school's first-ever NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed.
Powered by a veteran backcourt, with juniors Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell plus senior MaCio Teague, Baylor is third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (per KenPom), third in overall scoring per game (84.4 points per contest) and went 15-9 ATS this season.
The Bears have failed to cover in five of their last seven games, but that shouldn't matter in a matchup against a Hartford squad that really defied expectations to earn its first NCAA Tournament appearance in school history.
The Hawks finished just 11-8 SU on the season, good for fourth in the America East Conference, but they rode four straight victories in the conference tournament to earn an automatic NCAA bid. They even got lucky within their own tournament as they avoided facing top seed UMBC, which was upset by UMass-Lowell in the semifinals, which led to Hartford posting an easy 64-50 victory in the championship.
Hartford has four players averaging in double figures, led by Austin Williams and his 12.3 ppg, but depth scoring is a real issue for the Hawks, who average just 64.2 ppg and are 254th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Hawks also played two games against Power Conference schools this season – including a 69-57 loss to UConn early in the season – but Baylor is an entirely different beast.
Don't overthink this, go with the Bears to cover against a middle-of-the-pack mid-major team.
PREDICTION: Baylor -25.5 (-110)
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Over/Under Pick
As mentioned above, the Hawks averaged just 64.2 ppg and they hit the 80-point mark just twice all season. They do keep their opponents in check, however, which has led to the Under cashing in 14 of 19 regular-season games. In the conference tournament, however, the Over hit in three of the Hawks' four games.
That's a stark contrast to Baylor, which went 13-9 O/U in the regular season while hitting the Over in both Big 12 tourney games. The total for this game opened at 142, which is the highest total for the Hawks since their season opener but is one of the lower totals Baylor has seen all year.
The Bears can buckle down and play defense, as evidenced by their No. 44 ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency. With Hartford's struggles to score against similar competition, we don't see it lighting up the scoreboard, and as Baylor will likely take its foot off the gas in the second half with a big lead, we're leaning towards the Under here.
PREDICTION: Under 142 (-110)
First half pick
Baylor is coming off a disappointing loss in the Big 12 Tournament and hasn't looked overly sharp heading into the Big Dance. Despite a lofty spread against a team that is barely tournament-caliber, the Bears will want to get out to a strong start and remind everyone why they have some of the best March Madness odds in the nation.
Look for Butler & Co. to come out flying and ground the Hawks right away, leaving no doubt of the outcome of this game and being letting Butler be able to rest its key players heading into the Round of 32.
PREDICTION: Baylor first half -14.5 (-107)
Hartford vs Baylor betting card
- Baylor -25.5 (-110)
- Under 142 (-110)
- Baylor first half -14.5 (-107)
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